NFL WEEK 1

NFL player prop projections & picks
for Week 1.

Compare PDR's model projections with sportsbook lines, implied win probabilities, no-vig edges, and model-implied EV for this week's NFL player props.

32 games128 qualified plays128 graded
Season Record
504-433-0
53.8% hit rate · 20 voids
957 graded · 12 pending
All published qualified plays.
Top 5 Season Record
20-20-0
50.0% hit rate
40 graded · 0 pending
Featured Top 5 frozen pregame plays from each week.

Top plays

Frozen pregame model ranking.

#1 TOP PLAY
WIN
Rushing yards
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings · Sun, Sep 13, 3:25 PM CDT
OVER 29.5
Final: 40 rushing yards
Win 89.3%Edge +39.3%EV +67.7%
#2 TOP PLAY
WIN
Receiving yards
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers · Sun, Sep 13, 3:25 PM CDT
OVER 41.5
Final: 56 receiving yards
Win 89.3%Edge +39.3%EV +67.6%
#3 TOP PLAY
LOSS
Rushing yards
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions · Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CDT
UNDER 82.5
Final: 156 rushing yards
Win 85.2%Edge +35.2%EV +59.9%
#4 TOP PLAY
LOSS
Receiving yards
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans · Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CDT
OVER 41.5
Final: 38 receiving yards
Win 84.9%Edge +34.9%EV +59.4%
#5 TOP PLAY
LOSS
Passing TDs
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams · Thu, Sep 10, 7:35 PM CDT
OVER 1.5
Final: 0 passing TDs
Win 84.3%Edge +29.7%EV +44.5%

Week 1 games

Status reflects grading.