Published Record
8-6-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Drake Maye NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Drake Maye. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
57.1%
Published Plays
14
Modeled Lines Stored
22
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · OVER 1.5
Projection 2.1Cleared line 63%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · OVER 239.5
Projection 263.0Cleared line 38%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · OVER 23.5
Projection 29.2Cleared line 63%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Sun, Nov 1, 2:25 PM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -118
Projection2.1
Model win64.9%
No-vig edge+14.1%
Model-implied EV+19.9%
No-vig market50.8%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.1 is 0.6 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 64.9% vs 50.8% no-vig market probability creates a +14.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.9% model win, +14.1% no-vig edge, and +19.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 239.5
OVER 239.5 -113
Projection263.0
Model win58.7%
No-vig edge+8.7%
Model-implied EV+10.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
23.5 above line
Market 239.5
PDR 263.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 263.0 is 23.5 above the 239.5 line.
Model win probability 58.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.7% model win, +8.7% no-vig edge, and +10.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 23.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection29.2
Model win43.3%
No-vig edge-6.7%
Model-implied EV-18.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
Thu, Oct 22, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -125
Projection2.1
Model win65.9%
No-vig edge+14.0%
Model-implied EV+18.6%
No-vig market51.9%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.1 is 0.6 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 65.9% vs 51.9% no-vig market probability creates a +14.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 65.9% model win, +14.0% no-vig edge, and +18.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 246.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection262.5
Model win55.2%
No-vig edge+5.2%
Model-implied EV+4.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 248.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection262.5
Model win54.5%
No-vig edge+4.5%
Model-implied EV+2.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 27.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection28.0
Model win37.6%
No-vig edge-12.4%
Model-implied EV-29.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 29.5
UNDER 29.5 -114
Projection28.0
Model win64.6%
No-vig edge+14.6%
Model-implied EV+21.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.5 below line
Market 29.5
PDR 28.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 28.0 is 1.5 below the 29.5 line.
Model win probability 64.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 64.6% model win, +14.6% no-vig edge, and +21.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -158
Projection2.0
Model win64.3%
No-vig edge+7.2%
Model-implied EV+5.1%
No-vig market57.2%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.5 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.0 is 0.5 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 64.3% vs 57.2% no-vig market probability creates a +7.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.3% model win, +7.2% no-vig edge, and +5.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 233.5
OVER 233.5 -114
Projection257.5
Model win58.7%
No-vig edge+8.7%
Model-implied EV+10.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
24.0 above line
Market 233.5
PDR 257.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 257.5 is 24.0 above the 233.5 line.
Model win probability 58.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.7% model win, +8.7% no-vig edge, and +10.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 27.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection28.9
Model win39.3%
No-vig edge-10.7%
Model-implied EV-26.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -108
Projection2.1
Model win64.9%
No-vig edge+16.3%
Model-implied EV+25.0%
No-vig market48.6%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.1 is 0.6 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 64.9% vs 48.6% no-vig market probability creates a +16.3% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.9% model win, +16.3% no-vig edge, and +25.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 226.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection227.8
Model win49.8%
No-vig edge-0.2%
Model-implied EV-6.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 31.5
UNDER 31.5 -114
Projection28.5
Model win66.1%
No-vig edge+16.1%
Model-implied EV+24.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
3.0 below line
Market 31.5
PDR 28.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 28.5 is 3.0 below the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 66.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 66.1% model win, +16.1% no-vig edge, and +24.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 +134
Projection2.1
Model win66.1%
No-vig edge+26.2%
Model-implied EV+54.6%
No-vig market39.9%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.1 is 0.6 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 66.1% vs 39.9% no-vig market probability creates a +26.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 66.1% model win, +26.2% no-vig edge, and +54.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 231.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection220.5
Model win56.4%
No-vig edge+6.4%
Model-implied EV+5.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 26.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection27.4
Model win37.9%
No-vig edge-12.1%
Model-implied EV-28.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 +152
Projection2.1
Model win65.5%
No-vig edge+28.4%
Model-implied EV+65.1%
No-vig market37.1%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.1 is 0.6 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 65.5% vs 37.1% no-vig market probability creates a +28.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 65.5% model win, +28.4% no-vig edge, and +65.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 216.5
OVER 216.5 -114
Projection241.3
Model win58.7%
No-vig edge+8.7%
Model-implied EV+10.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
24.8 above line
Market 216.5
PDR 241.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 241.3 is 24.8 above the 216.5 line.
Model win probability 58.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.7% model win, +8.7% no-vig edge, and +10.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 25.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection27.8
Model win40.5%
No-vig edge-9.5%
Model-implied EV-24.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 +116
Projection2.1
Model win64.9%
No-vig edge+21.6%
Model-implied EV+40.2%
No-vig market43.3%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.1 is 0.6 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 64.9% vs 43.3% no-vig market probability creates a +21.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.9% model win, +21.6% no-vig edge, and +40.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 224.5
OVER 224.5 -114
Projection260.5
Model win64.7%
No-vig edge+14.7%
Model-implied EV+21.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
36.0 above line
Market 224.5
PDR 260.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 260.5 is 36.0 above the 224.5 line.
Model win probability 64.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.7% model win, +14.7% no-vig edge, and +21.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 64.9% | +14.1% | +19.9% | WIN · 2 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 8 | New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins | Passing yards | OVER 239.5 | 58.7% | +8.7% | +10.7% | LOSS · 199 passing yards | Game |
| Week 7 | New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 65.9% | +14.0% | +18.6% | WIN · 2 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 7 | New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears | Rushing yards | UNDER 29.5 | 64.6% | +14.6% | +21.2% | WIN · 26 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 6 | New York Jets @ New England Patriots | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 64.3% | +7.2% | +5.1% | WIN · 3 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 6 | New York Jets @ New England Patriots | Passing yards | OVER 233.5 | 58.7% | +8.7% | +10.2% | WIN · 235 passing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 64.9% | +16.3% | +25.0% | WIN · 4 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 5 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots | Rushing yards | UNDER 31.5 | 66.1% | +16.1% | +24.0% | WIN · 25 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 66.1% | +26.2% | +54.6% | WIN · 3 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 3 | New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 65.5% | +28.4% | +65.1% | LOSS · 0 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 3 | New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing yards | OVER 216.5 | 58.7% | +8.7% | +10.2% | LOSS · 199 passing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 64.9% | +21.6% | +40.2% | LOSS · 0 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 2 | Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots | Passing yards | OVER 224.5 | 64.7% | +14.7% | +21.5% | LOSS · 208 passing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 65.5% | +25.6% | +53.3% | LOSS · 1 passing TD | Game |