Published Record
0-5-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Brian Thomas Jr. NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Brian Thomas Jr.. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
0.0%
Published Plays
5
Modeled Lines Stored
8
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · OVER 1.5
Projection 4.1Cleared line 43%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 15.5
Projection 61.0Cleared line 43%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -114
Projection4.1
Model win82.5%
No-vig edge+32.5%
Model-implied EV+54.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
2.6 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 4.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 4.1 is 2.6 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 82.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +32.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 82.5% model win, +32.5% no-vig edge, and +54.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 15.5
OVER 15.5 -113
Projection61.0
Model win92.9%
No-vig edge+42.9%
Model-implied EV+75.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
45.5 above line
Market 15.5
PDR 61.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 61.0 is 45.5 above the 15.5 line.
Model win probability 92.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +42.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 92.9% model win, +42.9% no-vig edge, and +75.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Oct 18, 8:30 AM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -122
Projection3.5
Model win73.3%
No-vig edge+21.9%
Model-implied EV+33.4%
No-vig market51.4%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
2.0 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 3.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 3.5 is 2.0 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 73.3% vs 51.4% no-vig market probability creates a +21.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.3% model win, +21.9% no-vig edge, and +33.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 17.5
OVER 17.5 -114
Projection60.2
Model win91.2%
No-vig edge+41.2%
Model-implied EV+71.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
42.7 above line
Market 17.5
PDR 60.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 60.2 is 42.7 above the 17.5 line.
Model win probability 91.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +41.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 91.2% model win, +41.2% no-vig edge, and +71.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Oct 11, 8:30 AM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER +134
Projection3.5
Model win52.5%
No-vig edge+12.5%
Model-implied EV+22.8%
No-vig market39.9%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 24.5
OVER 24.5 -114
Projection53.5
Model win76.6%
No-vig edge+26.6%
Model-implied EV+43.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
29.0 above line
Market 24.5
PDR 53.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 53.5 is 29.0 above the 24.5 line.
Model win probability 76.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.6% model win, +26.6% no-vig edge, and +43.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER +140
Projection3.6
Model win38.2%
No-vig edge-0.8%
Model-implied EV-8.4%
No-vig market39.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 38.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection50.3
Model win50.2%
No-vig edge+0.2%
Model-implied EV-5.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Receptions | OVER 1.5 | 82.5% | +32.5% | +54.8% | LOSS · 1 reception | Game |
| Week 8 | Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving yards | OVER 15.5 | 92.9% | +42.9% | +75.0% | LOSS · 12 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Receptions | OVER 1.5 | 73.3% | +21.9% | +33.4% | LOSS · 0 receptions | Game |
| Week 6 | Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving yards | OVER 17.5 | 91.2% | +41.2% | +71.2% | LOSS · 0 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving yards | OVER 24.5 | 76.6% | +26.6% | +43.9% | LOSS · 0 receiving yards | Game |