WEEK 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CDT
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
6 qualified model plays · 0 modeled lines did not qualify · 1-5-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
UNDER 82.5
FanDuel
Projection
54.1
Proj. gap
-28.4
Model win
85.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+35.2%
Model-implied EV
+59.9%
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 156 rushing yards
LOSS
UNDER 6.5
FanDuel
Projection
5.9
Proj. gap
-0.6
Model win
73.4%
No-vig market
52.8%
No-vig edge
+20.6%
Model-implied EV
+29.9%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 10 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 76.5
FanDuel
Projection
75.6
Proj. gap
-0.9
Model win
67.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+17.6%
Model-implied EV
+27.0%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 182 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
FanDuel
Projection
4.3
Proj. gap
-0.2
Model win
66.5%
No-vig market
57.5%
No-vig edge
+9.0%
Model-implied EV
+8.0%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
LOSS
OVER 16.5
FanDuel
Projection
36.1
Proj. gap
+19.6
Model win
62.3%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+12.3%
Model-implied EV
+16.9%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 0 receiving yards
WIN
OVER 42.5
FanDuel
Projection
59.7
Proj. gap
+17.2
Model win
58.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+8.8%
Model-implied EV
+10.3%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 54 receiving yards