Published Record
3-1-0
PLAYER PROFILE
DK Metcalf NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for DK Metcalf. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
75.0%
Published Plays
4
Modeled Lines Stored
10
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 4.5
Projection 4.4Cleared line 86%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 52.5
Projection 58.5Cleared line 29%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: UNDER -166
Projection4.4
Model win64.8%
No-vig edge+6.5%
Model-implied EV+3.9%
No-vig market58.3%
Samples2154
Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 52.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection58.5
Model win41.2%
No-vig edge-8.8%
Model-implied EV-22.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints
Sun, Oct 25, 8:30 AM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -102
Projection4.2
Model win69.3%
No-vig edge+22.1%
Model-implied EV+37.3%
No-vig market47.2%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.2 is 0.3 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 69.3% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +22.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.3% model win, +22.1% no-vig edge, and +37.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 54.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection61.3
Model win42.2%
No-vig edge-7.8%
Model-implied EV-20.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -180
Projection4.9
Model win59.8%
No-vig edge-0.3%
Model-implied EV-7.0%
No-vig market60.1%
Samples2154
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 51.5
OVER 51.5 -114
Projection71.9
Model win63.3%
No-vig edge+13.3%
Model-implied EV+18.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
20.4 above line
Market 51.5
PDR 71.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 71.9 is 20.4 above the 51.5 line.
Model win probability 63.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 63.3% model win, +13.3% no-vig edge, and +18.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Thu, Oct 1, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -122
Projection4.4
Model win51.8%
No-vig edge+0.4%
Model-implied EV-5.7%
No-vig market51.4%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 41.5
OVER 41.5 -114
Projection58.7
Model win58.7%
No-vig edge+8.7%
Model-implied EV+10.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
17.2 above line
Market 41.5
PDR 58.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 58.7 is 17.2 above the 41.5 line.
Model win probability 58.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 58.7% model win, +8.7% no-vig edge, and +10.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -130
Projection4.3
Model win67.8%
No-vig edge+15.0%
Model-implied EV+20.0%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.2 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.3 is 0.2 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +15.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +15.0% no-vig edge, and +20.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 52.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection63.1
Model win48.7%
No-vig edge-1.3%
Model-implied EV-8.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 69.3% | +22.1% | +37.3% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 5 | Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving yards | OVER 51.5 | 63.3% | +13.3% | +18.8% | LOSS · 12 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns | Receiving yards | OVER 41.5 | 58.7% | +8.7% | +10.2% | WIN · 115 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 67.8% | +15.0% | +20.0% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |