Published Record
1-3-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Dawson Knox NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Dawson Knox. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
25.0%
Published Plays
4
Modeled Lines Stored
2
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
No current-week research chart is available for this player yet.
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 2
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
Thu, Sep 17, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 +124
Projection3.6
Model win74.0%
No-vig edge+32.3%
Model-implied EV+65.7%
No-vig market41.7%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
2.1 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 3.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 3.6 is 2.1 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 74.0% vs 41.7% no-vig market probability creates a +32.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.0% model win, +32.3% no-vig edge, and +65.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 12.5
OVER 12.5 -114
Projection35.7
Model win68.1%
No-vig edge+18.1%
Model-implied EV+27.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
23.2 above line
Market 12.5
PDR 35.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 35.7 is 23.2 above the 12.5 line.
Model win probability 68.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.1% model win, +18.1% no-vig edge, and +27.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 2 | Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills | Receptions | OVER 1.5 | 74.0% | +32.3% | +65.7% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills | Receiving yards | OVER 12.5 | 68.1% | +18.1% | +27.8% | LOSS · 5 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans | Receptions | OVER 1.5 | 69.1% | +19.1% | +29.7% | LOSS · 1 reception | Game |
| Week 1 | Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans | Receiving yards | OVER 14.5 | 57.8% | +7.8% | +8.4% | LOSS · 7 receiving yards | Game |