Published Record
3-2-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Caleb Williams NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Caleb Williams. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
60.0%
Published Plays
6
Modeled Lines Stored
9
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · OVER 1.5
Projection 1.9Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · OVER 227.5
Projection 241.7Cleared line 75%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Mon, Nov 2, 6:15 PM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 +136
Projection1.9
Model win60.7%
No-vig edge+21.0%
Model-implied EV+43.2%
No-vig market39.6%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 1.9 is 0.4 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 60.7% vs 39.6% no-vig market probability creates a +21.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 60.7% model win, +21.0% no-vig edge, and +43.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 227.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection241.7
Model win54.7%
No-vig edge+4.7%
Model-implied EV+2.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
Thu, Oct 22, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER -154
Projection1.9
Model win59.5%
No-vig edge+2.8%
Model-implied EV-1.9%
No-vig market56.7%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 241.5
UNDER 241.5 -113
Projection210.9
Model win64.9%
No-vig edge+14.9%
Model-implied EV+22.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
30.6 below line
Market 241.5
PDR 210.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 210.9 is 30.6 below the 241.5 line.
Model win probability 64.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.9% model win, +14.9% no-vig edge, and +22.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 245.5
UNDER 245.5 -114
Projection210.9
Model win67.2%
No-vig edge+17.2%
Model-implied EV+26.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
34.6 below line
Market 245.5
PDR 210.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 210.9 is 34.6 below the 245.5 line.
Model win probability 67.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 67.2% model win, +17.2% no-vig edge, and +26.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER -158
Projection1.9
Model win59.5%
No-vig edge+2.3%
Model-implied EV-2.8%
No-vig market57.2%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 219.5
OVER 219.5 -114
Projection244.6
Model win58.9%
No-vig edge+8.9%
Model-implied EV+10.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
25.1 above line
Market 219.5
PDR 244.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 244.6 is 25.1 above the 219.5 line.
Model win probability 58.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.9% model win, +8.9% no-vig edge, and +10.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER -136
Projection1.9
Model win58.9%
No-vig edge+5.1%
Model-implied EV+2.2%
No-vig market53.8%
Samples516
Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 221.5
UNDER 221.5 -114
Projection195.6
Model win63.2%
No-vig edge+13.2%
Model-implied EV+18.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
25.9 below line
Market 221.5
PDR 195.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 195.6 is 25.9 below the 221.5 line.
Model win probability 63.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.2% model win, +13.2% no-vig edge, and +18.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 60.7% | +21.0% | +43.2% | Pending | Game |
| Week 7 | New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears | Passing yards | UNDER 241.5 | 64.9% | +14.9% | +22.4% | LOSS · 308 passing yards | Game |
| Week 7 | New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears | Passing yards | UNDER 245.5 | 67.2% | +17.2% | +26.2% | LOSS · 308 passing yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons | Passing yards | OVER 219.5 | 58.9% | +8.9% | +10.6% | WIN · 305 passing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears | Passing yards | UNDER 221.5 | 63.2% | +13.2% | +18.6% | WIN · 138 passing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 59.3% | +11.2% | +15.2% | WIN · 2 passing TDs | Game |