Published Record
3-4-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Travis Kelce NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Travis Kelce. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
42.9%
Published Plays
7
Modeled Lines Stored
8
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 4.5
Projection 3.7Cleared line 60%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · UNDER 46.5
Projection 31.8Cleared line 20%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Sun, Nov 1, 2:25 PM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -144
Projection3.7
Model win75.6%
No-vig edge+20.5%
Model-implied EV+28.1%
No-vig market55.1%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.8 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.7 is 0.8 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 75.6% vs 55.1% no-vig market probability creates a +20.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.6% model win, +20.5% no-vig edge, and +28.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 46.5
UNDER 46.5 -113
Projection31.8
Model win79.3%
No-vig edge+29.3%
Model-implied EV+49.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
14.7 below line
Market 46.5
PDR 31.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 31.8 is 14.7 below the 46.5 line.
Model win probability 79.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +29.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 79.3% model win, +29.3% no-vig edge, and +49.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -140
Projection3.5
Model win77.6%
No-vig edge+23.0%
Model-implied EV+33.1%
No-vig market54.6%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.0 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.5 is 1.0 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 77.6% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +23.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.6% model win, +23.0% no-vig edge, and +33.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 47.5
UNDER 47.5 -114
Projection29.7
Model win81.6%
No-vig edge+31.6%
Model-implied EV+53.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
17.8 below line
Market 47.5
PDR 29.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 29.7 is 17.8 below the 47.5 line.
Model win probability 81.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +31.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 81.6% model win, +31.6% no-vig edge, and +53.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -114
Projection3.6
Model win76.6%
No-vig edge+26.6%
Model-implied EV+43.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.9 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.6 is 0.9 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 76.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.6% model win, +26.6% no-vig edge, and +43.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 51.5
UNDER 51.5 -114
Projection33.6
Model win81.6%
No-vig edge+31.6%
Model-implied EV+53.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
17.9 below line
Market 51.5
PDR 33.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 33.6 is 17.9 below the 51.5 line.
Model win probability 81.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +31.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 81.6% model win, +31.6% no-vig edge, and +53.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sun, Sep 20, 7:20 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -154
Projection3.9
Model win42.9%
No-vig edge-13.8%
Model-implied EV-29.2%
No-vig market56.7%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 42.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection45.7
Model win37.4%
No-vig edge-12.6%
Model-implied EV-29.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 75.6% | +20.5% | +28.1% | LOSS · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 8 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos | Receiving yards | UNDER 46.5 | 79.3% | +29.3% | +49.6% | LOSS · 67 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 77.6% | +23.0% | +33.1% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving yards | UNDER 47.5 | 81.6% | +31.6% | +53.2% | WIN · 15 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 76.6% | +26.6% | +43.9% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins | Receiving yards | UNDER 51.5 | 81.6% | +31.6% | +53.2% | LOSS · 59 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving yards | UNDER 41.5 | 75.2% | +25.2% | +41.2% | LOSS · 71 receiving yards | Game |