Published Record
4-6-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Christian Watson NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Christian Watson. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
40.0%
Published Plays
10
Modeled Lines Stored
14
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 4.5
Projection 4.0Cleared line 38%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · UNDER 71.5
Projection 57.6Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Thu, Oct 29, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -112
Projection4.0
Model win71.2%
No-vig edge+21.8%
Model-implied EV+34.7%
No-vig market49.4%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.5 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.0 is 0.5 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 71.2% vs 49.4% no-vig market probability creates a +21.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.2% model win, +21.8% no-vig edge, and +34.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 71.5
UNDER 71.5 -114
Projection57.6
Model win78.9%
No-vig edge+28.9%
Model-implied EV+48.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
13.9 below line
Market 71.5
PDR 57.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 57.6 is 13.9 below the 71.5 line.
Model win probability 78.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.9% model win, +28.9% no-vig edge, and +48.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -122
Projection3.6
Model win77.5%
No-vig edge+26.1%
Model-implied EV+41.0%
No-vig market51.4%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.9 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.6 is 0.9 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 77.5% vs 51.4% no-vig market probability creates a +26.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.5% model win, +26.1% no-vig edge, and +41.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 75.5
UNDER 75.5 -114
Projection54.6
Model win83.9%
No-vig edge+33.9%
Model-implied EV+57.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
20.9 below line
Market 75.5
PDR 54.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 54.6 is 20.9 below the 75.5 line.
Model win probability 83.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +33.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 83.9% model win, +33.9% no-vig edge, and +57.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Sun, Oct 18, 7:20 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -102
Projection4.3
Model win67.8%
No-vig edge+20.6%
Model-implied EV+34.3%
No-vig market47.2%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.2 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.3 is 0.2 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +20.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +20.6% no-vig edge, and +34.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 66.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection70.4
Model win38.6%
No-vig edge-11.4%
Model-implied EV-27.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER +116
Projection4.6
Model win37.8%
No-vig edge-5.5%
Model-implied EV-18.3%
No-vig market43.3%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 60.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection74.9
Model win54.5%
No-vig edge+4.5%
Model-implied EV+2.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 +116
Projection3.7
Model win75.4%
No-vig edge+32.1%
Model-implied EV+62.9%
No-vig market43.3%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.8 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.7 is 0.8 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 75.4% vs 43.3% no-vig market probability creates a +32.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.4% model win, +32.1% no-vig edge, and +62.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 67.5
UNDER 67.5 -114
Projection65.0
Model win69.2%
No-vig edge+19.2%
Model-implied EV+29.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
2.5 below line
Market 67.5
PDR 65.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 65.0 is 2.5 below the 67.5 line.
Model win probability 69.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.2% model win, +19.2% no-vig edge, and +29.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Thu, Sep 24, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 +104
Projection3.6
Model win77.1%
No-vig edge+31.3%
Model-implied EV+57.3%
No-vig market45.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.9 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.6 is 0.9 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 77.1% vs 45.8% no-vig market probability creates a +31.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.1% model win, +31.3% no-vig edge, and +57.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 69.5
UNDER 69.5 -114
Projection59.9
Model win75.1%
No-vig edge+25.1%
Model-implied EV+40.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
9.6 below line
Market 69.5
PDR 59.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 59.9 is 9.6 below the 69.5 line.
Model win probability 75.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.1% model win, +25.1% no-vig edge, and +40.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER +134
Projection4.5
Model win36.5%
No-vig edge-3.4%
Model-implied EV-14.6%
No-vig market39.9%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 61.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection72.1
Model win48.7%
No-vig edge-1.3%
Model-implied EV-8.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 71.2% | +21.8% | +34.7% | LOSS · 8 receptions | Game |
| Week 8 | Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers | Receiving yards | UNDER 71.5 | 78.9% | +28.9% | +48.1% | LOSS · 113 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 77.5% | +26.1% | +41.0% | LOSS · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Receiving yards | UNDER 75.5 | 83.9% | +33.9% | +57.5% | WIN · 57 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 67.8% | +20.6% | +34.3% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 75.4% | +32.1% | +62.9% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving yards | UNDER 67.5 | 69.2% | +19.2% | +29.9% | WIN · 47 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 77.1% | +31.3% | +57.3% | LOSS · 7 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers | Receiving yards | UNDER 69.5 | 75.1% | +25.1% | +40.9% | LOSS · 96 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | Receiving yards | UNDER 54.5 | 67.4% | +17.4% | +26.5% | LOSS · 147 receiving yards | Game |