WEEK 1 · Thu, Sep 10, 7:35 PM CDT

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams

13 qualified model plays · 0 modeled lines did not qualify · 5-8-0

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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 13 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.

Avg model win 69.5% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.

Avg no-vig edge +18.8% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.

Avg model-implied EV +28.6% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →

QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Matthew Stafford

Passing TDs

LOSS

OVER 1.5

FanDuel

Projection 2.8

Proj. gap +1.3

Model win 84.3%

No-vig market 54.6%

No-vig edge +29.7%

Model-implied EV +44.5%

Historical residual sample: 516

Final: 0 passing TDs

#2 MODEL PLAY

Puka Nacua

Receiving yards

LOSS

OVER 90.5

FanDuel

Projection 118.1

Proj. gap +27.6

Model win 75.1%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +25.1%

Model-implied EV +40.9%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 74 receiving yards

#3 MODEL PLAY

Christian McCaffrey

Rushing yards

WIN

OVER 59.5

FanDuel

Projection 87.9

Proj. gap +28.4

Model win 74.0%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +24.0%

Model-implied EV +38.9%

Historical residual sample: 796

Final: 68 rushing yards

#4 MODEL PLAY

George Kittle

Receptions

LOSS

OVER 3.5

FanDuel

Projection 5.5

Proj. gap +2.0

Model win 73.4%

No-vig market 55.9%

No-vig edge +17.6%

Model-implied EV +23.1%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 2 receptions

#5 MODEL PLAY

Brock Purdy

Passing TDs

WIN

OVER 1.5

FanDuel

Projection 2.4

Proj. gap +0.9

Model win 71.9%

No-vig market 47.6%

No-vig edge +24.3%

Model-implied EV +41.0%

Historical residual sample: 516

Final: 3 passing TDs

#6 MODEL PLAY

Tyler Higbee

Receiving yards

LOSS

OVER 13.5

FanDuel

Projection 39.0

Proj. gap +25.5

Model win 71.9%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +21.9%

Model-implied EV +34.9%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 12 receiving yards

#7 MODEL PLAY

George Kittle

Receiving yards

LOSS

OVER 39.5

FanDuel

Projection 63.4

Proj. gap +23.9

Model win 69.2%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +19.2%

Model-implied EV +29.9%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 12 receiving yards

#8 MODEL PLAY

Deebo Samuel Sr.

Receiving yards

WIN

OVER 29.5

FanDuel

Projection 53.0

Proj. gap +23.5

Model win 68.7%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +18.7%

Model-implied EV +29.0%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 48 receiving yards

#9 MODEL PLAY

Tyler Higbee

Receptions

WIN

OVER 1.5

FanDuel

Projection 3.1

Proj. gap +1.6

Model win 64.2%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +14.2%

Model-implied EV +20.5%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 2 receptions

#10 MODEL PLAY

Matthew Stafford

Passing yards

LOSS

OVER 263.5

FanDuel

Projection 298.5

Proj. gap +35.0

Model win 64.1%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +14.1%

Model-implied EV +20.4%

Historical residual sample: 516

Final: 155 passing yards

#11 MODEL PLAY

Blake Corum

Rushing yards

WIN

OVER 37.5

FanDuel

Projection 58.5

Proj. gap +21.0

Model win 63.7%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +13.7%

Model-implied EV +19.6%

Historical residual sample: 796

Final: 54 rushing yards

#12 MODEL PLAY

Colby Parkinson

Receiving yards

LOSS

OVER 20.5

FanDuel

Projection 40.2

Proj. gap +19.7

Model win 62.3%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +12.3%

Model-implied EV +17.0%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 6 receiving yards

#13 MODEL PLAY

Kyren Williams

Rushing yards

LOSS

OVER 55.5

FanDuel

Projection 73.7

Proj. gap +18.2

Model win 60.1%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +10.1%

Model-implied EV +12.7%

Historical residual sample: 796

Final: 41 rushing yards