Published Record
2-2-0
PLAYER PROFILE
T.J. Hockenson NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for T.J. Hockenson. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
50.0%
Published Plays
4
Modeled Lines Stored
4
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 4.5
Projection 3.8Cleared line 80%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · UNDER 38.5
Projection 34.9Cleared line 60%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -118
Projection3.8
Model win74.8%
No-vig edge+24.2%
Model-implied EV+38.3%
No-vig market50.6%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.7 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.8 is 0.7 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 74.8% vs 50.6% no-vig market probability creates a +24.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.8% model win, +24.2% no-vig edge, and +38.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 38.5
UNDER 38.5 -114
Projection34.9
Model win70.1%
No-vig edge+20.1%
Model-implied EV+31.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
3.6 below line
Market 38.5
PDR 34.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 34.9 is 3.6 below the 38.5 line.
Model win probability 70.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.1% model win, +20.1% no-vig edge, and +31.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Sep 27, 3:05 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -118
Projection3.3
Model win66.9%
No-vig edge+16.2%
Model-implied EV+23.5%
No-vig market50.6%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.2 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 3.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.3 is 0.2 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 66.9% vs 50.6% no-vig market probability creates a +16.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.9% model win, +16.2% no-vig edge, and +23.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 30.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection32.6
Model win36.3%
No-vig edge-13.7%
Model-implied EV-31.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 74.8% | +24.2% | +38.3% | WIN · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 8 | Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions | Receiving yards | UNDER 38.5 | 70.1% | +20.1% | +31.6% | LOSS · 58 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 66.9% | +16.2% | +23.5% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 1 | Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 69.8% | +19.8% | +31.1% | LOSS · 4 receptions | Game |