Published Record
4-1-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Chris Godwin Jr. NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Chris Godwin Jr.. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
80.0%
Published Plays
5
Modeled Lines Stored
8
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 4.5
Projection 4.1Cleared line 83%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 39.5
Projection 48.2Cleared line 33%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -132
Projection4.1
Model win70.6%
No-vig edge+17.3%
Model-implied EV+24.0%
No-vig market53.2%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.1 is 0.4 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 70.6% vs 53.2% no-vig market probability creates a +17.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.6% model win, +17.3% no-vig edge, and +24.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 39.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection48.2
Model win45.3%
No-vig edge-4.7%
Model-implied EV-14.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Thu, Oct 8, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
OVER 3.5 +112
Projection4.9
Model win60.1%
No-vig edge+15.9%
Model-implied EV+27.4%
No-vig market44.1%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.4 above line
Market 3.5
PDR 4.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 4.9 is 1.4 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 60.1% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +15.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 60.1% model win, +15.9% no-vig edge, and +27.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 27.5
OVER 27.5 -114
Projection60.0
Model win81.1%
No-vig edge+31.1%
Model-implied EV+52.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
32.5 above line
Market 27.5
PDR 60.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 60.0 is 32.5 above the 27.5 line.
Model win probability 81.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +31.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 81.1% model win, +31.1% no-vig edge, and +52.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 2.5
OVER 2.5 -130
Projection4.6
Model win74.0%
No-vig edge+21.1%
Model-implied EV+30.8%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
2.1 above line
Market 2.5
PDR 4.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 4.6 is 2.1 above the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 74.0% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +21.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.0% model win, +21.1% no-vig edge, and +30.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 27.5
OVER 27.5 -114
Projection52.8
Model win71.5%
No-vig edge+21.5%
Model-implied EV+34.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
25.3 above line
Market 27.5
PDR 52.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 52.8 is 25.3 above the 27.5 line.
Model win probability 71.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.5% model win, +21.5% no-vig edge, and +34.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Sep 27, 3:05 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER +120
Projection4.2
Model win48.9%
No-vig edge+6.4%
Model-implied EV+7.7%
No-vig market42.5%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 35.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection40.9
Model win40.5%
No-vig edge-9.5%
Model-implied EV-23.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 70.6% | +17.3% | +24.0% | WIN · 0 receptions | Game |
| Week 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 60.1% | +15.9% | +27.4% | LOSS · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys | Receiving yards | OVER 27.5 | 81.1% | +31.1% | +52.2% | WIN · 37 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | OVER 2.5 | 74.0% | +21.1% | +30.8% | WIN · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving yards | OVER 27.5 | 71.5% | +21.5% | +34.3% | WIN · 31 receiving yards | Game |