Published Record
5-2-0
PLAYER PROFILE
DJ Moore NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for DJ Moore. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
71.4%
Published Plays
7
Modeled Lines Stored
10
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 4.5
Projection 3.8Cleared line 60%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 53.5
Projection 59.4Cleared line 60%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -174
Projection3.8
Model win73.8%
No-vig edge+14.5%
Model-implied EV+16.2%
No-vig market59.4%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.7 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.8 is 0.7 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 73.8% vs 59.4% no-vig market probability creates a +14.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.8% model win, +14.5% no-vig edge, and +16.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 53.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection59.4
Model win40.9%
No-vig edge-9.1%
Model-implied EV-22.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Oct 18, 3:25 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -138
Projection3.6
Model win37.2%
No-vig edge-17.0%
Model-implied EV-35.9%
No-vig market54.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 49.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection49.9
Model win33.6%
No-vig edge-16.4%
Model-implied EV-36.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -102
Projection3.1
Model win69.6%
No-vig edge+22.5%
Model-implied EV+37.9%
No-vig market47.2%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 3.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.1 is 0.4 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 69.6% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +22.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.6% model win, +22.5% no-vig edge, and +37.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 45.5
UNDER 45.5 -114
Projection42.8
Model win69.5%
No-vig edge+19.5%
Model-implied EV+30.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
2.7 below line
Market 45.5
PDR 42.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 42.8 is 2.7 below the 45.5 line.
Model win probability 69.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.5% model win, +19.5% no-vig edge, and +30.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 +106
Projection3.2
Model win68.6%
No-vig edge+23.2%
Model-implied EV+41.4%
No-vig market45.4%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 3.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.2 is 0.3 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 68.6% vs 45.4% no-vig market probability creates a +23.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.6% model win, +23.2% no-vig edge, and +41.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 49.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection51.7
Model win36.3%
No-vig edge-13.7%
Model-implied EV-31.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
Thu, Sep 17, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -112
Projection2.9
Model win83.5%
No-vig edge+34.1%
Model-implied EV+58.1%
No-vig market49.4%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.6 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 2.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.9 is 1.6 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 83.5% vs 49.4% no-vig market probability creates a +34.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 83.5% model win, +34.1% no-vig edge, and +58.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 60.5
UNDER 60.5 -114
Projection38.1
Model win85.0%
No-vig edge+35.0%
Model-implied EV+59.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
22.4 below line
Market 60.5
PDR 38.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 38.1 is 22.4 below the 60.5 line.
Model win probability 85.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.0% model win, +35.0% no-vig edge, and +59.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 73.8% | +14.5% | +16.2% | WIN · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 69.6% | +22.5% | +37.9% | WIN · 1 reception | Game |
| Week 4 | New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills | Receiving yards | UNDER 45.5 | 69.5% | +19.5% | +30.5% | WIN · 11 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 68.6% | +23.2% | +41.4% | LOSS · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 83.5% | +34.1% | +58.1% | WIN · 0 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills | Receiving yards | UNDER 60.5 | 85.0% | +35.0% | +59.6% | WIN · 0 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 70.8% | +20.2% | +30.9% | LOSS · 5 receptions | Game |