Published Record
3-6-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Matthew Stafford NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Matthew Stafford. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
33.3%
Published Plays
9
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · OVER 1.5
Projection 2.7Cleared line 63%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · OVER 248.5
Projection 268.7Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams
Sun, Nov 1, 2:05 PM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -176
Projection2.7
Model win80.8%
No-vig edge+20.9%
Model-implied EV+26.7%
No-vig market59.9%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.2 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.7 is 1.2 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 80.8% vs 59.9% no-vig market probability creates a +20.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 80.8% model win, +20.9% no-vig edge, and +26.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 248.5
OVER 248.5 -113
Projection268.7
Model win57.9%
No-vig edge+7.9%
Model-implied EV+9.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
20.2 above line
Market 248.5
PDR 268.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 268.7 is 20.2 above the 248.5 line.
Model win probability 57.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +7.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 57.9% model win, +7.9% no-vig edge, and +9.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -174
Projection2.8
Model win83.9%
No-vig edge+24.6%
Model-implied EV+32.1%
No-vig market59.4%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.3 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.8 is 1.3 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 83.9% vs 59.4% no-vig market probability creates a +24.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 83.9% model win, +24.6% no-vig edge, and +32.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 270.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection265.5
Model win53.9%
No-vig edge+3.9%
Model-implied EV+1.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
Sun, Oct 18, 3:05 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -104
Projection2.7
Model win55.2%
No-vig edge+7.6%
Model-implied EV+8.3%
No-vig market47.6%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 281.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection286.5
Model win51.9%
No-vig edge+1.9%
Model-implied EV-2.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
Mon, Oct 12, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 2.5
OVER 2.5 +148
Projection2.8
Model win58.9%
No-vig edge+21.2%
Model-implied EV+46.1%
No-vig market37.7%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 above line
Market 2.5
PDR 2.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.8 is 0.3 above the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 58.9% vs 37.7% no-vig market probability creates a +21.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.9% model win, +21.2% no-vig edge, and +46.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 280.5
UNDER 280.5 -114
Projection254.6
Model win63.2%
No-vig edge+13.2%
Model-implied EV+18.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
25.9 below line
Market 280.5
PDR 254.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 254.6 is 25.9 below the 280.5 line.
Model win probability 63.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.2% model win, +13.2% no-vig edge, and +18.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -114
Projection2.8
Model win83.9%
No-vig edge+33.9%
Model-implied EV+57.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.3 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.8 is 1.3 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 83.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +33.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 83.9% model win, +33.9% no-vig edge, and +57.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 252.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection266.0
Model win54.3%
No-vig edge+4.3%
Model-implied EV+1.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams
Mon, Sep 21, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -220
Projection2.8
Model win84.7%
No-vig edge+20.4%
Model-implied EV+23.2%
No-vig market64.3%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.3 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.8 is 1.3 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 84.7% vs 64.3% no-vig market probability creates a +20.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 84.7% model win, +20.4% no-vig edge, and +23.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 242.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection255.0
Model win54.1%
No-vig edge+4.1%
Model-implied EV+1.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 80.8% | +20.9% | +26.7% | LOSS · 1 passing TD | Game |
| Week 8 | Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams | Passing yards | OVER 248.5 | 57.9% | +7.9% | +9.2% | LOSS · 157 passing yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 83.9% | +24.6% | +32.1% | WIN · 3 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 5 | Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams | Passing TDs | OVER 2.5 | 58.9% | +21.2% | +46.1% | WIN · 3 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 5 | Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams | Passing yards | UNDER 280.5 | 63.2% | +13.2% | +18.6% | LOSS · 383 passing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 83.9% | +33.9% | +57.5% | LOSS · 0 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 2 | New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 84.7% | +20.4% | +23.2% | WIN · 4 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 1 | San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 84.3% | +29.7% | +44.5% | LOSS · 0 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 1 | San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams | Passing yards | OVER 263.5 | 64.1% | +14.1% | +20.4% | LOSS · 155 passing yards | Game |