Published Record
6-0-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Colston Loveland NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Colston Loveland. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
100.0%
Published Plays
6
Modeled Lines Stored
14
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · OVER 4.5
Projection 4.6Cleared line 43%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 42.5
Projection 49.2Cleared line 43%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
Like one of these props? Turn the take into a challenge with friends on Buffet Bets.
Challenge a friend →
Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Mon, Nov 2, 6:15 PM CST
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER +116
Projection4.6
Model win37.1%
No-vig edge-6.2%
Model-implied EV-19.9%
No-vig market43.3%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 42.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection49.2
Model win42.0%
No-vig edge-8.0%
Model-implied EV-21.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
Thu, Oct 22, 7:15 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -172
Projection4.3
Model win49.2%
No-vig edge-9.8%
Model-implied EV-22.2%
No-vig market59.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 41.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection48.1
Model win41.8%
No-vig edge-8.2%
Model-implied EV-21.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
OVER 3.5 +108
Projection5.1
Model win65.8%
No-vig edge+20.9%
Model-implied EV+36.9%
No-vig market44.9%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.6 above line
Market 3.5
PDR 5.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 5.1 is 1.6 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 65.8% vs 44.9% no-vig market probability creates a +20.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 65.8% model win, +20.9% no-vig edge, and +36.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 34.5
OVER 34.5 -114
Projection61.6
Model win74.1%
No-vig edge+24.1%
Model-implied EV+39.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
27.1 above line
Market 34.5
PDR 61.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 61.6 is 27.1 above the 34.5 line.
Model win probability 74.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.1% model win, +24.1% no-vig edge, and +39.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -160
Projection4.4
Model win51.6%
No-vig edge-5.9%
Model-implied EV-16.1%
No-vig market57.5%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 35.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection49.3
Model win53.4%
No-vig edge+3.4%
Model-implied EV+0.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
OVER 3.5 +102
Projection4.8
Model win59.5%
No-vig edge+13.3%
Model-implied EV+20.1%
No-vig market46.2%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.3 above line
Market 3.5
PDR 4.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 4.8 is 1.3 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 59.5% vs 46.2% no-vig market probability creates a +13.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 59.5% model win, +13.3% no-vig edge, and +20.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 31.5
OVER 31.5 -114
Projection58.4
Model win73.7%
No-vig edge+23.7%
Model-implied EV+38.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
26.9 above line
Market 31.5
PDR 58.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 58.4 is 26.9 above the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 73.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.7% model win, +23.7% no-vig edge, and +38.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Mon, Sep 28, 7:15 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER +118
Projection4.4
Model win51.0%
No-vig edge+8.1%
Model-implied EV+11.1%
No-vig market42.8%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 31.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection45.9
Model win54.5%
No-vig edge+4.5%
Model-implied EV+2.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -136
Projection3.6
Model win76.8%
No-vig edge+23.0%
Model-implied EV+33.2%
No-vig market53.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.9 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.6 is 0.9 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 76.8% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +23.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.8% model win, +23.0% no-vig edge, and +33.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 49.5
UNDER 49.5 -114
Projection40.9
Model win74.5%
No-vig edge+24.5%
Model-implied EV+39.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
8.6 below line
Market 49.5
PDR 40.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 40.9 is 8.6 below the 49.5 line.
Model win probability 74.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.5% model win, +24.5% no-vig edge, and +39.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 65.8% | +20.9% | +36.9% | WIN · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 6 | Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons | Receiving yards | OVER 34.5 | 74.1% | +24.1% | +39.2% | WIN · 65 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | New York Jets @ Chicago Bears | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 59.5% | +13.3% | +20.1% | WIN · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | New York Jets @ Chicago Bears | Receiving yards | OVER 31.5 | 73.7% | +23.7% | +38.3% | WIN · 57 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 76.8% | +23.0% | +33.2% | WIN · 1 reception | Game |
| Week 2 | Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears | Receiving yards | UNDER 49.5 | 74.5% | +24.5% | +39.9% | WIN · 3 receiving yards | Game |