Published Record
8-7-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Christian McCaffrey NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Christian McCaffrey. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
53.3%
Published Plays
15
Modeled Lines Stored
16
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
No current-week research chart is available for this player yet.
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 7
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
3 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 62.5
OVER 62.5 -114
Projection79.4
Model win57.8%
No-vig edge+7.8%
Model-implied EV+8.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
16.9 above line
Market 62.5
PDR 79.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 79.4 is 16.9 above the 62.5 line.
Model win probability 57.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +7.8% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 57.8% model win, +7.8% no-vig edge, and +8.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 -140
Projection4.3
Model win80.1%
No-vig edge+25.6%
Model-implied EV+37.4%
No-vig market54.6%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.2 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 4.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.3 is 1.2 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 80.1% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +25.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.1% model win, +25.6% no-vig edge, and +37.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 44.5
UNDER 44.5 -114
Projection34.1
Model win75.8%
No-vig edge+25.8%
Model-implied EV+42.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
10.4 below line
Market 44.5
PDR 34.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 34.1 is 10.4 below the 44.5 line.
Model win probability 75.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.8% model win, +25.8% no-vig edge, and +42.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
Mon, Oct 19, 7:15 PM CDT
3 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 58.5
OVER 58.5 -114
Projection90.5
Model win78.3%
No-vig edge+28.3%
Model-implied EV+46.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
32.0 above line
Market 58.5
PDR 90.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 90.5 is 32.0 above the 58.5 line.
Model win probability 78.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.3% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 78.3% model win, +28.3% no-vig edge, and +46.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -112
Projection3.8
Model win73.8%
No-vig edge+24.4%
Model-implied EV+39.7%
No-vig market49.4%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.7 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.8 is 0.7 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 73.8% vs 49.4% no-vig market probability creates a +24.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.8% model win, +24.4% no-vig edge, and +39.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 39.5
UNDER 39.5 -114
Projection30.5
Model win74.8%
No-vig edge+24.8%
Model-implied EV+40.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
9.0 below line
Market 39.5
PDR 30.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 30.5 is 9.0 below the 39.5 line.
Model win probability 74.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.8% model win, +24.8% no-vig edge, and +40.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 53.5
OVER 53.5 -114
Projection70.9
Model win58.7%
No-vig edge+8.7%
Model-implied EV+10.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
17.4 above line
Market 53.5
PDR 70.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 70.9 is 17.4 above the 53.5 line.
Model win probability 58.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.7% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 58.7% model win, +8.7% no-vig edge, and +10.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER -125
Projection4.8
Model win40.4%
No-vig edge-11.5%
Model-implied EV-27.2%
No-vig market51.9%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 35.5
UNDER 35.5 -114
Projection32.0
Model win70.1%
No-vig edge+20.1%
Model-implied EV+31.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
3.5 below line
Market 35.5
PDR 32.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 32.0 is 3.5 below the 35.5 line.
Model win probability 70.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.1% model win, +20.1% no-vig edge, and +31.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 65.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection69.0
Model win41.3%
No-vig edge-8.7%
Model-implied EV-22.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -108
Projection4.5
Model win64.3%
No-vig edge+15.7%
Model-implied EV+23.8%
No-vig market48.6%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.0 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.5 is 0.0 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 64.3% vs 48.6% no-vig market probability creates a +15.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.3% model win, +15.7% no-vig edge, and +23.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 38.5
UNDER 38.5 -114
Projection28.8
Model win75.2%
No-vig edge+25.2%
Model-implied EV+41.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
9.7 below line
Market 38.5
PDR 28.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 28.8 is 9.7 below the 38.5 line.
Model win probability 75.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.2% model win, +25.2% no-vig edge, and +41.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun, Sep 27, 3:05 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 55.5
OVER 55.5 -114
Projection83.3
Model win73.2%
No-vig edge+23.2%
Model-implied EV+37.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
27.8 above line
Market 55.5
PDR 83.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 83.3 is 27.8 above the 55.5 line.
Model win probability 73.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 73.2% model win, +23.2% no-vig edge, and +37.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun, Sep 20, 3:25 PM CDT
3 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 57.5
OVER 57.5 -114
Projection83.1
Model win70.7%
No-vig edge+20.7%
Model-implied EV+32.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
25.6 above line
Market 57.5
PDR 83.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 83.1 is 25.6 above the 57.5 line.
Model win probability 70.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.7% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 70.7% model win, +20.7% no-vig edge, and +32.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 +112
Projection4.5
Model win64.2%
No-vig edge+20.0%
Model-implied EV+36.0%
No-vig market44.1%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.0 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.5 is 0.0 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 64.2% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +20.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.2% model win, +20.0% no-vig edge, and +36.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 42.5
UNDER 42.5 -114
Projection33.2
Model win74.9%
No-vig edge+24.9%
Model-implied EV+40.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
9.3 below line
Market 42.5
PDR 33.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 33.2 is 9.3 below the 42.5 line.
Model win probability 74.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.9% model win, +24.9% no-vig edge, and +40.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 | San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons | Rushing yards | OVER 62.5 | 57.8% | +7.8% | +8.5% | LOSS · 39 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 7 | San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 80.1% | +25.6% | +37.4% | LOSS · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons | Receiving yards | UNDER 44.5 | 75.8% | +25.8% | +42.2% | LOSS · 61 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers | Rushing yards | OVER 58.5 | 78.3% | +28.3% | +46.9% | WIN · 64 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 73.8% | +24.4% | +39.7% | LOSS · 9 receptions | Game |
| Week 6 | Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers | Receiving yards | UNDER 39.5 | 74.8% | +24.8% | +40.4% | LOSS · 53 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 5 | San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks | Rushing yards | OVER 53.5 | 58.7% | +8.7% | +10.1% | WIN · 68 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks | Receiving yards | UNDER 35.5 | 70.1% | +20.1% | +31.6% | WIN · 15 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 64.3% | +15.7% | +23.8% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers | Receiving yards | UNDER 38.5 | 75.2% | +25.2% | +41.1% | WIN · 18 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers | Rushing yards | OVER 55.5 | 73.2% | +23.2% | +37.5% | WIN · 75 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers | Rushing yards | OVER 57.5 | 70.7% | +20.7% | +32.8% | LOSS · 23 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 64.2% | +20.0% | +36.0% | WIN · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers | Receiving yards | UNDER 42.5 | 74.9% | +24.9% | +40.7% | LOSS · 43 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams | Rushing yards | OVER 59.5 | 74.0% | +24.0% | +38.9% | WIN · 68 rushing yards | Game |