Published Record
3-3-0
PLAYER PROFILE
DeVonta Smith NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for DeVonta Smith. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
50.0%
Published Plays
8
Modeled Lines Stored
6
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
No current-week research chart is available for this player yet.
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 4
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 +116
Projection4.3
Model win80.1%
No-vig edge+36.8%
Model-implied EV+73.1%
No-vig market43.3%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.2 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 4.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.3 is 1.2 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 80.1% vs 43.3% no-vig market probability creates a +36.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.1% model win, +36.8% no-vig edge, and +73.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 68.5
UNDER 68.5 -114
Projection55.8
Model win77.7%
No-vig edge+27.7%
Model-implied EV+45.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
12.7 below line
Market 68.5
PDR 55.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 55.8 is 12.7 below the 68.5 line.
Model win probability 77.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +27.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.7% model win, +27.7% no-vig edge, and +45.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Mon, Sep 28, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 -114
Projection4.7
Model win76.3%
No-vig edge+26.3%
Model-implied EV+43.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.8 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 4.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.7 is 0.8 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 76.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.3% model win, +26.3% no-vig edge, and +43.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 70.5
UNDER 70.5 -113
Projection62.2
Model win74.1%
No-vig edge+24.1%
Model-implied EV+39.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
8.3 below line
Market 70.5
PDR 62.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 62.2 is 8.3 below the 70.5 line.
Model win probability 74.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.1% model win, +24.1% no-vig edge, and +39.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 +102
Projection4.1
Model win69.8%
No-vig edge+23.6%
Model-implied EV+41.0%
No-vig market46.2%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.1 is 0.4 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 69.8% vs 46.2% no-vig market probability creates a +23.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.8% model win, +23.6% no-vig edge, and +41.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 60.5
UNDER 60.5 -114
Projection55.4
Model win71.4%
No-vig edge+21.4%
Model-implied EV+33.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
5.1 below line
Market 60.5
PDR 55.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 55.4 is 5.1 below the 60.5 line.
Model win probability 71.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.4% model win, +21.4% no-vig edge, and +33.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 | Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 80.1% | +36.8% | +73.1% | VOID | Game |
| Week 4 | Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles | Receiving yards | UNDER 68.5 | 77.7% | +27.7% | +45.8% | VOID | Game |
| Week 3 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 76.3% | +26.3% | +43.2% | LOSS · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears | Receiving yards | UNDER 70.5 | 74.1% | +24.1% | +39.8% | WIN · 65 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 69.8% | +23.6% | +41.0% | LOSS · 10 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans | Receiving yards | UNDER 60.5 | 71.4% | +21.4% | +33.9% | LOSS · 117 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 79.5% | +24.9% | +36.3% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 1 | Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles | Receiving yards | UNDER 66.5 | 76.6% | +26.6% | +43.9% | WIN · 53 receiving yards | Game |