Published Record
2-0-0
PLAYER PROFILE
AJ Barner NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for AJ Barner. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
100.0%
Published Plays
3
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 3.5
Projection 3.2Cleared line 71%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 28.5
Projection 31.9Cleared line 29%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Mon, Nov 2, 6:15 PM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -168
Projection3.2
Model win67.9%
No-vig edge+9.3%
Model-implied EV+8.3%
No-vig market58.6%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 3.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.2 is 0.3 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 67.9% vs 58.6% no-vig market probability creates a +9.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.9% model win, +9.3% no-vig edge, and +8.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 28.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection31.9
Model win37.7%
No-vig edge-12.3%
Model-implied EV-29.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
Sun, Oct 25, 7:20 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -158
Projection3.4
Model win51.7%
No-vig edge-5.5%
Model-implied EV-15.5%
No-vig market57.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 25.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection34.2
Model win45.5%
No-vig edge-4.5%
Model-implied EV-14.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos
Thu, Oct 15, 7:15 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -118
Projection3.3
Model win49.5%
No-vig edge-1.1%
Model-implied EV-8.6%
No-vig market50.6%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 22.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection31.9
Model win46.4%
No-vig edge-3.6%
Model-implied EV-12.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -152
Projection3.2
Model win48.7%
No-vig edge-7.6%
Model-implied EV-19.2%
No-vig market56.3%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 24.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection36.3
Model win50.2%
No-vig edge+0.2%
Model-implied EV-5.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -160
Projection2.9
Model win72.7%
No-vig edge+15.1%
Model-implied EV+18.1%
No-vig market57.5%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 2.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.9 is 0.6 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 72.7% vs 57.5% no-vig market probability creates a +15.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.7% model win, +15.1% no-vig edge, and +18.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 31.5
UNDER 31.5 -114
Projection30.1
Model win68.2%
No-vig edge+18.2%
Model-implied EV+28.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.4 below line
Market 31.5
PDR 30.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 30.1 is 1.4 below the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 68.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.2% model win, +18.2% no-vig edge, and +28.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -128
Projection2.9
Model win43.9%
No-vig edge-8.5%
Model-implied EV-21.8%
No-vig market52.4%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 21.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection31.0
Model win46.4%
No-vig edge-3.6%
Model-implied EV-12.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 67.9% | +9.3% | +8.3% | Pending | Game |
| Week 4 | Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 72.7% | +15.1% | +18.1% | WIN · 1 reception | Game |
| Week 4 | Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks | Receiving yards | UNDER 31.5 | 68.2% | +18.2% | +28.1% | WIN · 12 receiving yards | Game |