Published Record
1-4-0
PLAYER PROFILE
J.K. Dobbins NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for J.K. Dobbins. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
20.0%
Published Plays
5
Modeled Lines Stored
6
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · OVER 30.5
Projection 76.3Cleared line 75%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Sun, Nov 1, 2:25 PM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 30.5
OVER 30.5 -113
Projection76.3
Model win91.7%
No-vig edge+41.7%
Model-implied EV+72.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
45.8 above line
Market 30.5
PDR 76.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 76.3 is 45.8 above the 30.5 line.
Model win probability 91.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +41.7% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 91.7% model win, +41.7% no-vig edge, and +72.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun, Oct 25, 3:05 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 58.5
OVER 58.5 -114
Projection80.3
Model win65.1%
No-vig edge+15.1%
Model-implied EV+22.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
21.8 above line
Market 58.5
PDR 80.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 80.3 is 21.8 above the 58.5 line.
Model win probability 65.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 65.1% model win, +15.1% no-vig edge, and +22.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos
Thu, Oct 15, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 47.5
OVER 47.5 -114
Projection68.0
Model win63.1%
No-vig edge+13.1%
Model-implied EV+18.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
20.5 above line
Market 47.5
PDR 68.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 68.0 is 20.5 above the 47.5 line.
Model win probability 63.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 63.1% model win, +13.1% no-vig edge, and +18.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sun, Oct 11, 3:05 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 49.5
OVER 49.5 -114
Projection69.2
Model win61.6%
No-vig edge+11.6%
Model-implied EV+15.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
19.7 above line
Market 49.5
PDR 69.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 69.2 is 19.7 above the 49.5 line.
Model win probability 61.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 61.6% model win, +11.6% no-vig edge, and +15.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 59.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection72.7
Model win53.5%
No-vig edge+3.5%
Model-implied EV+0.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
Sun, Sep 20, 3:05 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 54.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection70.9
Model win57.0%
No-vig edge+7.0%
Model-implied EV+7.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos | Rushing yards | OVER 30.5 | 91.7% | +41.7% | +72.9% | LOSS · 13 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals | Rushing yards | OVER 58.5 | 65.1% | +15.1% | +22.2% | LOSS · 23 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos | Rushing yards | OVER 47.5 | 63.1% | +13.1% | +18.4% | LOSS · 41 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers | Rushing yards | OVER 49.5 | 61.6% | +11.6% | +15.6% | WIN · 68 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing yards | OVER 49.5 | 71.4% | +21.4% | +34.0% | LOSS · 36 rushing yards | Game |