Published Record
2-3-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Patrick Mahomes NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Patrick Mahomes. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
40.0%
Published Plays
5
Modeled Lines Stored
10
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · UNDER 1.5
Projection 1.2Cleared line 17%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · UNDER 220.5
Projection 215.0Cleared line 33%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Sun, Nov 1, 2:25 PM CST
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -198
Projection1.2
Model win59.3%
No-vig edge-3.1%
Model-implied EV-10.7%
No-vig market62.4%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 220.5
Model side: UNDER -113
Projection215.0
Model win54.1%
No-vig edge+4.1%
Model-implied EV+1.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
Sun, Oct 25, 7:20 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -210
Projection1.2
Model win59.3%
No-vig edge-3.9%
Model-implied EV-12.5%
No-vig market63.2%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 220.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection230.3
Model win52.9%
No-vig edge+2.9%
Model-implied EV-0.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 +100
Projection1.2
Model win59.3%
No-vig edge+12.5%
Model-implied EV+18.6%
No-vig market46.8%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.2 is 0.3 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 59.3% vs 46.8% no-vig market probability creates a +12.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.3% model win, +12.5% no-vig edge, and +18.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 236.5
UNDER 236.5 -114
Projection215.7
Model win61.0%
No-vig edge+11.0%
Model-implied EV+14.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
20.8 below line
Market 236.5
PDR 215.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 215.7 is 20.8 below the 236.5 line.
Model win probability 61.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 61.0% model win, +11.0% no-vig edge, and +14.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 +162
Projection1.2
Model win59.5%
No-vig edge+23.8%
Model-implied EV+55.9%
No-vig market35.7%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.2 is 0.3 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 59.5% vs 35.7% no-vig market probability creates a +23.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.5% model win, +23.8% no-vig edge, and +55.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 235.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection246.1
Model win53.1%
No-vig edge+3.1%
Model-implied EV-0.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sun, Sep 20, 7:20 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 -110
Projection1.2
Model win59.3%
No-vig edge+10.3%
Model-implied EV+13.2%
No-vig market49.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.2 is 0.3 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 59.3% vs 49.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.3% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.3% model win, +10.3% no-vig edge, and +13.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 217.5
OVER 217.5 -114
Projection237.4
Model win57.6%
No-vig edge+7.6%
Model-implied EV+8.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
19.9 above line
Market 217.5
PDR 237.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 237.4 is 19.9 above the 217.5 line.
Model win probability 57.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +7.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 57.6% model win, +7.6% no-vig edge, and +8.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 59.3% | +12.5% | +18.6% | LOSS · 2 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 4 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders | Passing yards | UNDER 236.5 | 61.0% | +11.0% | +14.6% | WIN · 225 passing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 59.5% | +23.8% | +55.9% | LOSS · 2 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 2 | Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 59.3% | +10.3% | +13.2% | LOSS · 3 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 2 | Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs | Passing yards | OVER 217.5 | 57.6% | +7.6% | +8.0% | WIN · 382 passing yards | Game |