Published Record
3-1-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Daniel Jones NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Daniel Jones. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
75.0%
Published Plays
4
Modeled Lines Stored
14
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · OVER 0.5
Projection 1.3Cleared line 63%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · OVER 192.5
Projection 201.6Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 0.5
OVER 0.5 -188
Projection1.3
Model win69.6%
No-vig edge+8.3%
Model-implied EV+6.6%
No-vig market61.2%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.8 above line
Market 0.5
PDR 1.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 1.3 is 0.8 above the 0.5 line.
Model win probability 69.6% vs 61.2% no-vig market probability creates a +8.3% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 69.6% model win, +8.3% no-vig edge, and +6.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 192.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection201.6
Model win52.9%
No-vig edge+2.9%
Model-implied EV-0.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 0.5
Model side: OVER -235
Projection1.3
Model win68.4%
No-vig edge+2.8%
Model-implied EV-2.5%
No-vig market65.6%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 199.5
UNDER 199.5 -114
Projection167.2
Model win65.7%
No-vig edge+15.7%
Model-implied EV+23.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
32.3 below line
Market 199.5
PDR 167.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 167.2 is 32.3 below the 199.5 line.
Model win probability 65.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 65.7% model win, +15.7% no-vig edge, and +23.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -136
Projection1.3
Model win57.9%
No-vig edge+4.2%
Model-implied EV+0.6%
No-vig market53.8%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 236.5
UNDER 236.5 -114
Projection209.1
Model win63.4%
No-vig edge+13.4%
Model-implied EV+19.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
27.4 below line
Market 236.5
PDR 209.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 209.1 is 27.4 below the 236.5 line.
Model win probability 63.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.4% model win, +13.4% no-vig edge, and +19.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -215
Projection1.3
Model win57.9%
No-vig edge-5.8%
Model-implied EV-15.1%
No-vig market63.8%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 213.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection220.8
Model win52.5%
No-vig edge+2.5%
Model-implied EV-1.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
Sun, Oct 4, 8:30 AM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -136
Projection1.3
Model win57.8%
No-vig edge+4.0%
Model-implied EV+0.2%
No-vig market53.8%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 224.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection216.0
Model win55.8%
No-vig edge+5.8%
Model-implied EV+4.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -230
Projection1.3
Model win57.8%
No-vig edge-7.4%
Model-implied EV-17.1%
No-vig market65.1%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 220.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection215.1
Model win53.9%
No-vig edge+3.9%
Model-implied EV+1.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sun, Sep 20, 7:20 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -235
Projection1.3
Model win57.4%
No-vig edge-8.2%
Model-implied EV-18.2%
No-vig market65.6%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 218.5
UNDER 218.5 -114
Projection200.8
Model win59.7%
No-vig edge+9.7%
Model-implied EV+12.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
17.7 below line
Market 218.5
PDR 200.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 200.8 is 17.7 below the 218.5 line.
Model win probability 59.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.7% model win, +9.7% no-vig edge, and +12.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing TDs | OVER 0.5 | 69.6% | +8.3% | +6.6% | WIN · 1 passing TD | Game |
| Week 7 | Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings | Passing yards | UNDER 199.5 | 65.7% | +15.7% | +23.3% | WIN · 108 passing yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts | Passing yards | UNDER 236.5 | 63.4% | +13.4% | +19.0% | LOSS · 269 passing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs | Passing yards | UNDER 218.5 | 59.7% | +9.7% | +12.0% | WIN · 210 passing yards | Game |