WEEK 1 · Mon, Sep 14, 7:15 PM CDT

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

9 qualified model plays · 0 modeled lines did not qualify · 5-4-0

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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 9 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.

Avg model win 71.9% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.

Avg no-vig edge +20.2% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.

Avg model-implied EV +31.0% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →

QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Jaylen Waddle

Receptions

WIN

UNDER 4.5

FanDuel

Projection 3.1

Proj. gap -1.4

Model win 81.3%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +31.3%

Model-implied EV +52.6%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 1 reception

#2 MODEL PLAY

RJ Harvey

Rushing yards

LOSS

OVER 20.5

FanDuel

Projection 53.1

Proj. gap +32.6

Model win 78.9%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +28.9%

Model-implied EV +48.1%

Historical residual sample: 796

Final: 18 rushing yards

#3 MODEL PLAY

Jaylen Waddle

Receiving yards

WIN

UNDER 53.5

FanDuel

Projection 42.7

Proj. gap -10.8

Model win 76.1%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +26.1%

Model-implied EV +42.9%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 2 receiving yards

#4 MODEL PLAY

Travis Kelce

Receiving yards

LOSS

UNDER 41.5

FanDuel

Projection 31.7

Proj. gap -9.8

Model win 75.2%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +25.2%

Model-implied EV +41.2%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 71 receiving yards

#5 MODEL PLAY

Courtland Sutton

Receptions

WIN

UNDER 4.5

FanDuel

Projection 4.0

Proj. gap -0.5

Model win 71.5%

No-vig market 58.3%

No-vig edge +13.2%

Model-implied EV +14.6%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 2 receptions

#6 MODEL PLAY

J.K. Dobbins

Rushing yards

LOSS

OVER 49.5

FanDuel

Projection 75.9

Proj. gap +26.4

Model win 71.4%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +21.4%

Model-implied EV +34.0%

Historical residual sample: 796

Final: 36 rushing yards

#7 MODEL PLAY

Xavier Worthy

Receptions

WIN

UNDER 3.5

FanDuel

Projection 3.1

Proj. gap -0.4

Model win 69.6%

No-vig market 56.7%

No-vig edge +12.9%

Model-implied EV +14.8%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 3 receptions

#8 MODEL PLAY

Kenneth Walker III

Rushing yards

LOSS

UNDER 59.5

FanDuel

Projection 57.1

Proj. gap -2.4

Model win 65.3%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +15.3%

Model-implied EV +22.6%

Historical residual sample: 796

Final: 173 rushing yards

#9 MODEL PLAY

Pat Bryant

Receiving yards

WIN

OVER 23.5

FanDuel

Projection 40.1

Proj. gap +16.6

Model win 57.8%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +7.8%

Model-implied EV +8.5%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 42 receiving yards