Published Record
7-5-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Tyler Warren NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Tyler Warren. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
58.3%
Published Plays
14
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 4.5
Projection 3.7Cleared line 33%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · UNDER 39.5
Projection 33.5Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -108
Projection3.7
Model win75.5%
No-vig edge+26.9%
Model-implied EV+45.4%
No-vig market48.6%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.8 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.7 is 0.8 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 75.5% vs 48.6% no-vig market probability creates a +26.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.5% model win, +26.9% no-vig edge, and +45.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 39.5
UNDER 39.5 -113
Projection33.5
Model win72.4%
No-vig edge+22.4%
Model-implied EV+36.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
6.0 below line
Market 39.5
PDR 33.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 33.5 is 6.0 below the 39.5 line.
Model win probability 72.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.4% model win, +22.4% no-vig edge, and +36.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 -122
Projection3.8
Model win84.2%
No-vig edge+32.8%
Model-implied EV+53.2%
No-vig market51.4%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.7 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 3.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.8 is 1.7 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 84.2% vs 51.4% no-vig market probability creates a +32.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 84.2% model win, +32.8% no-vig edge, and +53.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 53.5
UNDER 53.5 -114
Projection38.5
Model win79.5%
No-vig edge+29.5%
Model-implied EV+49.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
15.0 below line
Market 53.5
PDR 38.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 38.5 is 15.0 below the 53.5 line.
Model win probability 79.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +29.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 79.5% model win, +29.5% no-vig edge, and +49.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 -144
Projection3.6
Model win87.0%
No-vig edge+31.9%
Model-implied EV+47.4%
No-vig market55.1%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.9 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 3.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.6 is 1.9 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 87.0% vs 55.1% no-vig market probability creates a +31.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 87.0% model win, +31.9% no-vig edge, and +47.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 50.5
UNDER 50.5 -114
Projection34.0
Model win80.5%
No-vig edge+30.5%
Model-implied EV+51.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
16.5 below line
Market 50.5
PDR 34.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 34.0 is 16.5 below the 50.5 line.
Model win probability 80.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.5% model win, +30.5% no-vig edge, and +51.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
Sun, Oct 4, 8:30 AM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 -130
Projection3.7
Model win85.7%
No-vig edge+32.9%
Model-implied EV+51.7%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.8 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 3.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.7 is 1.8 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 85.7% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +32.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.7% model win, +32.9% no-vig edge, and +51.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 46.5
UNDER 46.5 -114
Projection33.2
Model win78.6%
No-vig edge+28.6%
Model-implied EV+47.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
13.3 below line
Market 46.5
PDR 33.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 33.2 is 13.3 below the 46.5 line.
Model win probability 78.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.6% model win, +28.6% no-vig edge, and +47.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 +112
Projection4.1
Model win69.8%
No-vig edge+25.7%
Model-implied EV+48.0%
No-vig market44.1%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.1 is 0.4 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 69.8% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +25.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.8% model win, +25.7% no-vig edge, and +48.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 44.5
UNDER 44.5 -114
Projection33.3
Model win76.6%
No-vig edge+26.6%
Model-implied EV+43.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
11.2 below line
Market 44.5
PDR 33.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 33.3 is 11.2 below the 44.5 line.
Model win probability 76.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.6% model win, +26.6% no-vig edge, and +43.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sun, Sep 20, 7:20 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -102
Projection4.2
Model win68.1%
No-vig edge+20.9%
Model-implied EV+34.8%
No-vig market47.2%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.2 is 0.3 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 68.1% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +20.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.1% model win, +20.9% no-vig edge, and +34.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 42.5
UNDER 42.5 -114
Projection36.6
Model win72.2%
No-vig edge+22.2%
Model-implied EV+35.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
5.9 below line
Market 42.5
PDR 36.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 36.6 is 5.9 below the 42.5 line.
Model win probability 72.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.2% model win, +22.2% no-vig edge, and +35.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 75.5% | +26.9% | +45.4% | WIN · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 8 | Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving yards | UNDER 39.5 | 72.4% | +22.4% | +36.5% | WIN · 18 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 84.2% | +32.8% | +53.2% | VOID | Game |
| Week 6 | Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts | Receiving yards | UNDER 53.5 | 79.5% | +29.5% | +49.2% | VOID | Game |
| Week 5 | Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 87.0% | +31.9% | +47.4% | LOSS · 7 receptions | Game |
| Week 5 | Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving yards | UNDER 50.5 | 80.5% | +30.5% | +51.0% | LOSS · 83 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 85.7% | +32.9% | +51.7% | WIN · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders | Receiving yards | UNDER 46.5 | 78.6% | +28.6% | +47.5% | WIN · 41 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 69.8% | +25.7% | +48.0% | LOSS · 9 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts | Receiving yards | UNDER 44.5 | 76.6% | +26.6% | +43.7% | LOSS · 55 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 68.1% | +20.9% | +34.8% | LOSS · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving yards | UNDER 42.5 | 72.2% | +22.2% | +35.5% | WIN · 21 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 73.4% | +26.2% | +45.4% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 1 | Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts | Receiving yards | UNDER 45.5 | 76.8% | +26.8% | +44.1% | WIN · 13 receiving yards | Game |