WEEK 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CDT

Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers

7 qualified model plays · 0 modeled lines did not qualify · 7-0-0

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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 7 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.

Avg model win 67.2% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.

Avg no-vig edge +16.2% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.

Avg model-implied EV +24.1% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →

QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Drake London

Receptions

WIN

UNDER 5.5

FanDuel

Projection 4.5

Proj. gap -1.0

Model win 78.1%

No-vig market 48.1%

No-vig edge +30.0%

Model-implied EV +51.8%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 2 receptions

#2 MODEL PLAY

Jaylen Warren

Rushing yards

WIN

OVER 40.5

FanDuel

Projection 70.4

Proj. gap +29.9

Model win 75.6%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +25.6%

Model-implied EV +42.0%

Historical residual sample: 796

Final: 46 rushing yards

#3 MODEL PLAY

Darnell Washington

Receptions

WIN

OVER 1.5

FanDuel

Projection 3.2

Proj. gap +1.7

Model win 66.9%

No-vig market 59.0%

No-vig edge +7.8%

Model-implied EV +5.7%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 2 receptions

#4 MODEL PLAY

Darnell Washington

Receiving yards

WIN

OVER 16.5

FanDuel

Projection 38.9

Proj. gap +22.4

Model win 66.4%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +16.4%

Model-implied EV +24.6%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 18 receiving yards

#5 MODEL PLAY

Pat Freiermuth

Receiving yards

WIN

OVER 25.5

FanDuel

Projection 46.3

Proj. gap +20.8

Model win 63.6%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +13.6%

Model-implied EV +19.4%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 46 receiving yards

#6 MODEL PLAY

Jahan Dotson

Receiving yards

WIN

OVER 18.5

FanDuel

Projection 37.3

Proj. gap +18.8

Model win 61.1%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +11.1%

Model-implied EV +14.8%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 19 receiving yards

#7 MODEL PLAY

Aaron Rodgers

Passing yards

WIN

OVER 210.5

FanDuel

Projection 234.3

Proj. gap +23.8

Model win 58.7%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +8.7%

Model-implied EV +10.2%

Historical residual sample: 516

Final: 221 passing yards