Published Record
4-2-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Tony Pollard NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Tony Pollard. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
66.7%
Published Plays
6
Modeled Lines Stored
7
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · OVER 65.5
Projection 70.0Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 65.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection70.0
Model win42.5%
No-vig edge-7.5%
Model-implied EV-20.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 67.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection83.7
Model win56.8%
No-vig edge+6.8%
Model-implied EV+6.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 49.5
OVER 49.5 -114
Projection82.6
Model win79.1%
No-vig edge+29.1%
Model-implied EV+48.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
33.1 above line
Market 49.5
PDR 82.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 82.6 is 33.1 above the 49.5 line.
Model win probability 79.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +29.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 79.1% model win, +29.1% no-vig edge, and +48.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 52.5
OVER 52.5 -114
Projection75.2
Model win67.2%
No-vig edge+17.2%
Model-implied EV+26.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
22.7 above line
Market 52.5
PDR 75.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 75.2 is 22.7 above the 52.5 line.
Model win probability 67.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 67.2% model win, +17.2% no-vig edge, and +26.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 45.5
OVER 45.5 -114
Projection69.3
Model win68.1%
No-vig edge+18.1%
Model-implied EV+27.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
23.8 above line
Market 45.5
PDR 69.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 69.3 is 23.8 above the 45.5 line.
Model win probability 68.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 68.1% model win, +18.1% no-vig edge, and +27.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 45.5
OVER 45.5 -114
Projection79.5
Model win80.5%
No-vig edge+30.5%
Model-implied EV+51.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
34.0 above line
Market 45.5
PDR 79.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 79.5 is 34.0 above the 45.5 line.
Model win probability 80.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.5% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 80.5% model win, +30.5% no-vig edge, and +51.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 44.5
OVER 44.5 -114
Projection76.9
Model win78.8%
No-vig edge+28.8%
Model-implied EV+47.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
32.4 above line
Market 44.5
PDR 76.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 76.9 is 32.4 above the 44.5 line.
Model win probability 78.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.8% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 78.8% model win, +28.8% no-vig edge, and +47.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts | Rushing yards | OVER 49.5 | 79.1% | +29.1% | +48.6% | WIN · 76 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans | Rushing yards | OVER 52.5 | 67.2% | +17.2% | +26.2% | LOSS · 52 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens | Rushing yards | OVER 45.5 | 68.1% | +18.1% | +27.8% | WIN · 48 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants | Rushing yards | OVER 45.5 | 80.5% | +30.5% | +51.2% | WIN · 74 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans | Rushing yards | OVER 44.5 | 78.8% | +28.8% | +47.9% | WIN · 64 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans | Rushing yards | OVER 54.5 | 75.9% | +25.9% | +42.4% | LOSS · 35 rushing yards | Game |