Published Record
6-1-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Brock Purdy NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Brock Purdy. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
85.7%
Published Plays
7
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
No current-week research chart is available for this player yet.
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 7
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -146
Projection2.4
Model win71.3%
No-vig edge+15.8%
Model-implied EV+20.2%
No-vig market55.5%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.9 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.4 is 0.9 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 71.3% vs 55.5% no-vig market probability creates a +15.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 71.3% model win, +15.8% no-vig edge, and +20.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 240.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection240.4
Model win50.8%
No-vig edge+0.8%
Model-implied EV-4.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
Mon, Oct 19, 7:15 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: UNDER -198
Projection2.4
Model win56.8%
No-vig edge-5.3%
Model-implied EV-14.5%
No-vig market62.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 246.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection238.6
Model win55.2%
No-vig edge+5.2%
Model-implied EV+3.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -108
Projection2.4
Model win71.9%
No-vig edge+23.3%
Model-implied EV+38.5%
No-vig market48.6%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.9 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.4 is 0.9 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 71.9% vs 48.6% no-vig market probability creates a +23.3% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 71.9% model win, +23.3% no-vig edge, and +38.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 225.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection235.1
Model win52.9%
No-vig edge+2.9%
Model-implied EV-0.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -102
Projection2.4
Model win71.3%
No-vig edge+24.1%
Model-implied EV+41.2%
No-vig market47.2%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.9 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.4 is 0.9 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 71.3% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +24.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 71.3% model win, +24.1% no-vig edge, and +41.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 229.5
UNDER 229.5 -114
Projection214.8
Model win58.5%
No-vig edge+8.5%
Model-implied EV+9.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
14.7 below line
Market 229.5
PDR 214.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 214.8 is 14.7 below the 229.5 line.
Model win probability 58.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.5% model win, +8.5% no-vig edge, and +9.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun, Sep 27, 3:05 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -178
Projection2.4
Model win70.5%
No-vig edge+10.8%
Model-implied EV+10.2%
No-vig market59.8%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.9 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.4 is 0.9 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 70.5% vs 59.8% no-vig market probability creates a +10.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 70.5% model win, +10.8% no-vig edge, and +10.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 237.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection239.1
Model win50.0%
No-vig edge+0.0%
Model-implied EV-6.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun, Sep 20, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -188
Projection2.3
Model win70.2%
No-vig edge+9.1%
Model-implied EV+7.5%
No-vig market61.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.8 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.3 is 0.8 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 70.2% vs 61.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 70.2% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +7.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 238.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection246.6
Model win52.7%
No-vig edge+2.7%
Model-implied EV-1.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 | San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 71.3% | +15.8% | +20.2% | LOSS · 1 passing TD | Game |
| Week 5 | San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 71.9% | +23.3% | +38.5% | WIN · 2 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 4 | Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 71.3% | +24.1% | +41.2% | WIN · 2 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 4 | Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers | Passing yards | UNDER 229.5 | 58.5% | +8.5% | +9.9% | WIN · 218 passing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 70.5% | +10.8% | +10.2% | WIN · 4 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 2 | Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 70.2% | +9.1% | +7.5% | WIN · 2 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 1 | San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 71.9% | +24.3% | +41.0% | WIN · 3 passing TDs | Game |