Published Record
2-1-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Cole Kmet NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Cole Kmet. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
66.7%
Published Plays
3
Modeled Lines Stored
8
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
No current-week research chart is available for this player yet.
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 7
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
Thu, Oct 22, 7:15 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER +178
Projection2.1
Model win46.8%
No-vig edge+13.2%
Model-implied EV+30.2%
No-vig market33.6%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 8.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection21.9
Model win52.5%
No-vig edge+2.5%
Model-implied EV-1.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 +162
Projection3.0
Model win62.1%
No-vig edge+26.4%
Model-implied EV+62.6%
No-vig market35.7%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.5 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 3.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 3.0 is 1.5 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 62.1% vs 35.7% no-vig market probability creates a +26.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 62.1% model win, +26.4% no-vig edge, and +62.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 9.5
OVER 9.5 -114
Projection35.5
Model win72.4%
No-vig edge+22.4%
Model-implied EV+36.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
26.0 above line
Market 9.5
PDR 35.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 35.5 is 26.0 above the 9.5 line.
Model win probability 72.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.4% model win, +22.4% no-vig edge, and +36.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER +182
Projection2.7
Model win56.9%
No-vig edge+23.7%
Model-implied EV+60.5%
No-vig market33.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 9.5
OVER 9.5 -114
Projection32.8
Model win68.2%
No-vig edge+18.2%
Model-implied EV+28.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
23.3 above line
Market 9.5
PDR 32.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 32.8 is 23.3 above the 9.5 line.
Model win probability 68.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.2% model win, +18.2% no-vig edge, and +28.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Mon, Sep 28, 7:15 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER +124
Projection2.2
Model win48.2%
No-vig edge+6.5%
Model-implied EV+8.0%
No-vig market41.7%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 8.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection19.7
Model win49.6%
No-vig edge-0.4%
Model-implied EV-6.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | OVER 1.5 | 62.1% | +26.4% | +62.6% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 6 | Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons | Receiving yards | OVER 9.5 | 72.4% | +22.4% | +36.0% | LOSS · 3 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | New York Jets @ Chicago Bears | Receiving yards | OVER 9.5 | 68.2% | +18.2% | +28.0% | WIN · 13 receiving yards | Game |