Published Record
7-9-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Jahmyr Gibbs NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Jahmyr Gibbs. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
43.8%
Published Plays
16
Modeled Lines Stored
18
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · UNDER 86.5
Projection 53.2Cleared line 29%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 4.5
Projection 4.0Cleared line 29%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · UNDER 33.5
Projection 31.9Cleared line 57%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
3 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 86.5
UNDER 86.5 -114
Projection53.2
Model win87.2%
No-vig edge+37.2%
Model-implied EV+63.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
33.3 below line
Market 86.5
PDR 53.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 53.2 is 33.3 below the 86.5 line.
Model win probability 87.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +37.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 87.2% model win, +37.2% no-vig edge, and +63.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -136
Projection4.0
Model win72.4%
No-vig edge+18.6%
Model-implied EV+25.7%
No-vig market53.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.5 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.0 is 0.5 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 72.4% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +18.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.4% model win, +18.6% no-vig edge, and +25.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 33.5
UNDER 33.5 -114
Projection31.9
Model win68.3%
No-vig edge+18.3%
Model-implied EV+28.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.6 below line
Market 33.5
PDR 31.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 31.9 is 1.6 below the 33.5 line.
Model win probability 68.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.3% model win, +18.3% no-vig edge, and +28.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CDT
3 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 93.5
UNDER 93.5 -114
Projection75.6
Model win78.9%
No-vig edge+28.9%
Model-implied EV+48.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
17.9 below line
Market 93.5
PDR 75.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 75.6 is 17.9 below the 93.5 line.
Model win probability 78.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.9% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 78.9% model win, +28.9% no-vig edge, and +48.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 +128
Projection4.4
Model win64.5%
No-vig edge+23.6%
Model-implied EV+47.1%
No-vig market41.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.1 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.4 is 0.1 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 64.5% vs 41.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.5% model win, +23.6% no-vig edge, and +47.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 38.5
UNDER 38.5 -114
Projection36.2
Model win69.1%
No-vig edge+19.1%
Model-implied EV+29.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
2.3 below line
Market 38.5
PDR 36.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 36.2 is 2.3 below the 38.5 line.
Model win probability 69.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.1% model win, +19.1% no-vig edge, and +29.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 90.5
UNDER 90.5 -114
Projection60.8
Model win85.8%
No-vig edge+35.8%
Model-implied EV+61.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
29.7 below line
Market 90.5
PDR 60.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 60.8 is 29.7 below the 90.5 line.
Model win probability 85.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.8% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 85.8% model win, +35.8% no-vig edge, and +61.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER -136
Projection4.8
Model win41.7%
No-vig edge-12.1%
Model-implied EV-27.7%
No-vig market53.8%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 36.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection44.3
Model win44.1%
No-vig edge-5.9%
Model-implied EV-17.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Sun, Oct 4, 7:20 PM CDT
3 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 96.5
UNDER 96.5 -114
Projection63.0
Model win87.4%
No-vig edge+37.4%
Model-implied EV+64.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
33.5 below line
Market 96.5
PDR 63.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 63.0 is 33.5 below the 96.5 line.
Model win probability 87.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +37.4% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 87.4% model win, +37.4% no-vig edge, and +64.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -102
Projection4.1
Model win70.6%
No-vig edge+23.4%
Model-implied EV+39.7%
No-vig market47.2%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.1 is 0.4 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 70.6% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +23.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.6% model win, +23.4% no-vig edge, and +39.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 35.5
UNDER 35.5 -114
Projection33.2
Model win69.1%
No-vig edge+19.1%
Model-implied EV+29.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
2.3 below line
Market 35.5
PDR 33.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 33.2 is 2.3 below the 35.5 line.
Model win probability 69.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.1% model win, +19.1% no-vig edge, and +29.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
New York Jets @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 87.5
UNDER 87.5 -114
Projection63.0
Model win82.4%
No-vig edge+32.4%
Model-implied EV+54.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
24.5 below line
Market 87.5
PDR 63.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 63.0 is 24.5 below the 87.5 line.
Model win probability 82.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +32.4% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 82.4% model win, +32.4% no-vig edge, and +54.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -114
Projection4.5
Model win64.1%
No-vig edge+14.1%
Model-implied EV+20.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.0 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.5 is 0.0 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 64.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.1% model win, +14.1% no-vig edge, and +20.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 35.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection38.2
Model win37.0%
No-vig edge-13.0%
Model-implied EV-30.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
Thu, Sep 17, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 90.5
UNDER 90.5 -114
Projection49.9
Model win90.1%
No-vig edge+40.1%
Model-implied EV+69.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
40.6 below line
Market 90.5
PDR 49.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 49.9 is 40.6 below the 90.5 line.
Model win probability 90.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +40.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 90.1% model win, +40.1% no-vig edge, and +69.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -146
Projection4.3
Model win66.8%
No-vig edge+11.3%
Model-implied EV+12.6%
No-vig market55.5%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.2 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.3 is 0.2 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 66.8% vs 55.5% no-vig market probability creates a +11.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.8% model win, +11.3% no-vig edge, and +12.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 29.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection34.1
Model win39.4%
No-vig edge-10.6%
Model-implied EV-26.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions | Rushing yards | UNDER 86.5 | 87.2% | +37.2% | +63.7% | LOSS · 153 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 8 | Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 72.4% | +18.6% | +25.7% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 8 | Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions | Receiving yards | UNDER 33.5 | 68.3% | +18.3% | +28.2% | WIN · 15 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Rushing yards | UNDER 93.5 | 78.9% | +28.9% | +48.1% | LOSS · 116 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 64.5% | +23.6% | +47.1% | LOSS · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Receiving yards | UNDER 38.5 | 69.1% | +19.1% | +29.7% | WIN · 27 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals | Rushing yards | UNDER 90.5 | 85.8% | +35.8% | +61.1% | LOSS · 151 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers | Rushing yards | UNDER 96.5 | 87.4% | +37.4% | +64.1% | WIN · 46 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 70.6% | +23.4% | +39.7% | WIN · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers | Receiving yards | UNDER 35.5 | 69.1% | +19.1% | +29.7% | WIN · 31 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | New York Jets @ Detroit Lions | Rushing yards | UNDER 87.5 | 82.4% | +32.4% | +54.7% | LOSS · 99 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | New York Jets @ Detroit Lions | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 64.1% | +14.1% | +20.3% | LOSS · 7 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills | Rushing yards | UNDER 90.5 | 90.1% | +40.1% | +69.1% | WIN · 52 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 66.8% | +11.3% | +12.6% | LOSS · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 1 | New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions | Rushing yards | UNDER 82.5 | 85.2% | +35.2% | +59.9% | LOSS · 156 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 66.5% | +9.0% | +8.0% | LOSS · 5 receptions | Game |