Published Record
2-5-0
PLAYER PROFILE
C.J. Stroud NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for C.J. Stroud. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
28.6%
Published Plays
7
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
No current-week research chart is available for this player yet.
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 7
New York Giants @ Houston Texans
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER +138
Projection1.4
Model win56.0%
No-vig edge+16.8%
Model-implied EV+33.3%
No-vig market39.2%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 255.5
UNDER 255.5 -114
Projection177.7
Model win84.7%
No-vig edge+34.7%
Model-implied EV+59.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
77.8 below line
Market 255.5
PDR 177.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 177.7 is 77.8 below the 255.5 line.
Model win probability 84.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +34.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 84.7% model win, +34.7% no-vig edge, and +59.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Oct 18, 8:30 AM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -162
Projection1.5
Model win54.8%
No-vig edge-3.0%
Model-implied EV-11.3%
No-vig market57.9%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 256.5
UNDER 256.5 -114
Projection206.4
Model win75.2%
No-vig edge+25.2%
Model-implied EV+41.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
50.1 below line
Market 256.5
PDR 206.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 206.4 is 50.1 below the 256.5 line.
Model win probability 75.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 75.2% model win, +25.2% no-vig edge, and +41.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -146
Projection1.4
Model win56.2%
No-vig edge+0.7%
Model-implied EV-5.3%
No-vig market55.5%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 239.5
UNDER 239.5 -114
Projection210.2
Model win63.8%
No-vig edge+13.8%
Model-implied EV+19.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
29.3 below line
Market 239.5
PDR 210.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 210.2 is 29.3 below the 239.5 line.
Model win probability 63.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.8% model win, +13.8% no-vig edge, and +19.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -132
Projection1.5
Model win54.8%
No-vig edge+1.6%
Model-implied EV-3.6%
No-vig market53.2%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 244.5
UNDER 244.5 -114
Projection220.7
Model win62.2%
No-vig edge+12.2%
Model-implied EV+16.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
23.8 below line
Market 244.5
PDR 220.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 220.7 is 23.8 below the 244.5 line.
Model win probability 62.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 62.2% model win, +12.2% no-vig edge, and +16.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -172
Projection1.5
Model win55.0%
No-vig edge-3.8%
Model-implied EV-13.0%
No-vig market58.8%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 237.5
UNDER 237.5 -114
Projection218.4
Model win60.5%
No-vig edge+10.5%
Model-implied EV+13.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
19.1 below line
Market 237.5
PDR 218.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 218.4 is 19.1 below the 237.5 line.
Model win probability 60.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 60.5% model win, +10.5% no-vig edge, and +13.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -122
Projection1.5
Model win54.8%
No-vig edge+3.4%
Model-implied EV-0.2%
No-vig market51.4%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 240.5
UNDER 240.5 -114
Projection205.5
Model win67.6%
No-vig edge+17.6%
Model-implied EV+27.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
35.0 below line
Market 240.5
PDR 205.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 205.5 is 35.0 below the 240.5 line.
Model win probability 67.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 67.6% model win, +17.6% no-vig edge, and +27.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 | New York Giants @ Houston Texans | Passing yards | UNDER 255.5 | 84.7% | +34.7% | +59.0% | WIN · 153 passing yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing yards | UNDER 256.5 | 75.2% | +25.2% | +41.2% | LOSS · 312 passing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans | Passing yards | UNDER 239.5 | 63.8% | +13.8% | +19.7% | LOSS · 261 passing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans | Passing yards | UNDER 244.5 | 62.2% | +12.2% | +16.8% | LOSS · 347 passing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts | Passing yards | UNDER 237.5 | 60.5% | +10.5% | +13.5% | WIN · 167 passing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans | Passing yards | UNDER 240.5 | 67.6% | +17.6% | +27.0% | LOSS · 353 passing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans | Passing yards | UNDER 218.5 | 68.8% | +18.8% | +29.1% | LOSS · 274 passing yards | Game |