Published Record
3-2-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Josh Allen NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Josh Allen. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
60.0%
Published Plays
5
Modeled Lines Stored
17
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · UNDER 1.5
Projection 1.4Cleared line 43%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · OVER 247.5
Projection 248.8Cleared line 71%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · OVER 35.5
Projection 39.8Cleared line 29%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
Like one of these props? Turn the take into a challenge with friends on Buffet Bets.
Challenge a friend →
Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER +110
Projection1.4
Model win56.0%
No-vig edge+11.4%
Model-implied EV+17.6%
No-vig market44.7%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 247.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection248.8
Model win49.8%
No-vig edge-0.2%
Model-implied EV-6.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 35.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection39.8
Model win42.1%
No-vig edge-7.9%
Model-implied EV-20.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Oct 18, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER +100
Projection1.4
Model win57.0%
No-vig edge+10.2%
Model-implied EV+14.0%
No-vig market46.8%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 238.5
UNDER 238.5 -114
Projection190.3
Model win74.6%
No-vig edge+24.6%
Model-implied EV+40.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
48.2 below line
Market 238.5
PDR 190.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 190.3 is 48.2 below the 238.5 line.
Model win probability 74.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 74.6% model win, +24.6% no-vig edge, and +40.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 33.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection38.8
Model win43.2%
No-vig edge-6.8%
Model-implied EV-18.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
Mon, Oct 12, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -118
Projection1.4
Model win56.2%
No-vig edge+5.6%
Model-implied EV+3.8%
No-vig market50.6%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 245.5
UNDER 245.5 -114
Projection212.4
Model win66.1%
No-vig edge+16.1%
Model-implied EV+24.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
33.1 below line
Market 245.5
PDR 212.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 212.4 is 33.1 below the 245.5 line.
Model win probability 66.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 66.1% model win, +16.1% no-vig edge, and +24.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 36.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection37.8
Model win39.2%
No-vig edge-10.8%
Model-implied EV-26.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER +120
Projection1.4
Model win57.2%
No-vig edge+14.7%
Model-implied EV+25.8%
No-vig market42.5%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 242.5
UNDER 242.5 -114
Projection179.4
Model win79.3%
No-vig edge+29.3%
Model-implied EV+48.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
63.1 below line
Market 242.5
PDR 179.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 179.4 is 63.1 below the 242.5 line.
Model win probability 79.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +29.3% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 79.3% model win, +29.3% no-vig edge, and +48.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 31.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection39.0
Model win45.4%
No-vig edge-4.6%
Model-implied EV-14.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER +112
Projection1.4
Model win56.8%
No-vig edge+12.6%
Model-implied EV+20.4%
No-vig market44.1%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 238.5
UNDER 238.5 -114
Projection206.9
Model win65.7%
No-vig edge+15.7%
Model-implied EV+23.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
31.6 below line
Market 238.5
PDR 206.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 206.9 is 31.6 below the 238.5 line.
Model win probability 65.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 65.7% model win, +15.7% no-vig edge, and +23.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 32.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection39.7
Model win44.8%
No-vig edge-5.2%
Model-implied EV-15.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
Thu, Sep 17, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER +124
Projection1.4
Model win56.8%
No-vig edge+15.1%
Model-implied EV+27.2%
No-vig market41.7%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 248.5
UNDER 248.5 -114
Projection196.5
Model win75.8%
No-vig edge+25.8%
Model-implied EV+42.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
52.0 below line
Market 248.5
PDR 196.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 196.5 is 52.0 below the 248.5 line.
Model win probability 75.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 75.8% model win, +25.8% no-vig edge, and +42.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders | Passing yards | UNDER 238.5 | 74.6% | +24.6% | +40.1% | LOSS · 255 passing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams | Passing yards | UNDER 245.5 | 66.1% | +16.1% | +24.1% | WIN · 210 passing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills | Passing yards | UNDER 242.5 | 79.3% | +29.3% | +48.8% | LOSS · 253 passing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills | Passing yards | UNDER 238.5 | 65.7% | +15.7% | +23.3% | WIN · 204 passing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills | Passing yards | UNDER 248.5 | 75.8% | +25.8% | +42.2% | WIN · 248 passing yards | Game |