WEEK 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 3:25 PM CDT
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers
6 qualified model plays · 0 modeled lines did not qualify · 2-4-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
WIN
OVER 41.5
FanDuel
Projection
81.9
Proj. gap
+40.4
Model win
89.3%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+39.3%
Model-implied EV
+67.6%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 56 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 50.5
FanDuel
Projection
40.1
Proj. gap
-10.4
Model win
75.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+25.7%
Model-implied EV
+42.1%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 82 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
FanDuel
Projection
3.9
Proj. gap
-0.6
Model win
73.0%
No-vig market
52.8%
No-vig edge
+20.2%
Model-implied EV
+29.1%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 6.5
FanDuel
Projection
6.3
Proj. gap
-0.2
Model win
66.6%
No-vig market
56.7%
No-vig edge
+9.9%
Model-implied EV
+9.8%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 9 receptions
WIN
OVER 3.5
FanDuel
Projection
5.1
Proj. gap
+1.6
Model win
63.6%
No-vig market
51.4%
No-vig edge
+12.2%
Model-implied EV
+15.8%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
LOSS
OVER 1.5
FanDuel
Projection
1.9
Proj. gap
+0.4
Model win
59.5%
No-vig market
36.8%
No-vig edge
+22.7%
Model-implied EV
+51.1%
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 1 passing TD