Published Record
3-1-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Aaron Rodgers NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Aaron Rodgers. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
75.0%
Published Plays
4
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · UNDER 1.5
Projection 1.1Cleared line 57%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · UNDER 218.5
Projection 212.8Cleared line 43%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 -144
Projection1.1
Model win64.1%
No-vig edge+8.8%
Model-implied EV+8.7%
No-vig market55.3%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.1 is 0.4 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 64.1% vs 55.3% no-vig market probability creates a +8.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.1% model win, +8.8% no-vig edge, and +8.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 218.5
Model side: UNDER -113
Projection212.8
Model win54.1%
No-vig edge+4.1%
Model-implied EV+1.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints
Sun, Oct 25, 8:30 AM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 -130
Projection1.1
Model win63.8%
No-vig edge+10.9%
Model-implied EV+12.8%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.1 is 0.4 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 63.8% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +10.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.8% model win, +10.9% no-vig edge, and +12.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 230.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection223.8
Model win54.7%
No-vig edge+4.7%
Model-implied EV+2.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 -114
Projection1.1
Model win63.6%
No-vig edge+13.6%
Model-implied EV+19.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.1 is 0.4 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 63.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.6% model win, +13.6% no-vig edge, and +19.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 222.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection238.8
Model win55.2%
No-vig edge+5.2%
Model-implied EV+3.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Thu, Oct 1, 7:15 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -225
Projection1.1
Model win64.1%
No-vig edge-0.5%
Model-implied EV-7.3%
No-vig market64.6%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 212.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection213.5
Model win49.6%
No-vig edge-0.4%
Model-implied EV-6.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -220
Projection1.1
Model win63.6%
No-vig edge-0.7%
Model-implied EV-7.5%
No-vig market64.3%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 220.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection224.1
Model win50.8%
No-vig edge+0.8%
Model-implied EV-4.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 0.5
Model side: OVER -245
Projection1.1
Model win64.9%
No-vig edge-1.5%
Model-implied EV-8.6%
No-vig market66.4%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 206.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection200.8
Model win54.1%
No-vig edge+4.1%
Model-implied EV+1.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 64.1% | +8.8% | +8.7% | WIN · 0 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 63.8% | +10.9% | +12.8% | WIN · 1 passing TD | Game |
| Week 5 | Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 63.6% | +13.6% | +19.3% | LOSS · 3 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 1 | Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Passing yards | OVER 210.5 | 58.7% | +8.7% | +10.2% | WIN · 221 passing yards | Game |