Published Record
2-3-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Derrick Henry NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Derrick Henry. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
40.0%
Published Plays
5
Modeled Lines Stored
6
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · OVER 78.5
Projection 100.1Cleared line 43%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
Like one of these props? Turn the take into a challenge with friends on Buffet Bets.
Challenge a friend →
Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 78.5
OVER 78.5 -113
Projection100.1
Model win64.6%
No-vig edge+14.6%
Model-implied EV+21.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
21.6 above line
Market 78.5
PDR 100.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 100.1 is 21.6 above the 78.5 line.
Model win probability 64.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 64.6% model win, +14.6% no-vig edge, and +21.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 85.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection101.2
Model win56.4%
No-vig edge+6.4%
Model-implied EV+5.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 11, 7:20 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 89.5
OVER 89.5 -114
Projection111.9
Model win66.6%
No-vig edge+16.6%
Model-implied EV+25.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
22.4 above line
Market 89.5
PDR 111.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 111.9 is 22.4 above the 89.5 line.
Model win probability 66.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 66.6% model win, +16.6% no-vig edge, and +25.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 96.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection108.9
Model win52.3%
No-vig edge+2.3%
Model-implied EV-1.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Sun, Sep 27, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 89.5
OVER 89.5 -114
Projection120.1
Model win76.4%
No-vig edge+26.4%
Model-implied EV+43.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
30.6 above line
Market 89.5
PDR 120.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 120.1 is 30.6 above the 89.5 line.
Model win probability 76.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.4% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 76.4% model win, +26.4% no-vig edge, and +43.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 88.5
OVER 88.5 -114
Projection108.8
Model win62.9%
No-vig edge+12.9%
Model-implied EV+18.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
20.3 above line
Market 88.5
PDR 108.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 108.8 is 20.3 above the 88.5 line.
Model win probability 62.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.9% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 62.9% model win, +12.9% no-vig edge, and +18.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills | Rushing yards | OVER 78.5 | 64.6% | +14.6% | +21.7% | LOSS · 53 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons | Rushing yards | OVER 89.5 | 66.6% | +16.6% | +25.0% | WIN · 102 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys | Rushing yards | OVER 89.5 | 76.4% | +26.4% | +43.4% | LOSS · 89 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens | Rushing yards | OVER 88.5 | 62.9% | +12.9% | +18.1% | LOSS · 68 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts | Rushing yards | OVER 80.5 | 82.2% | +32.2% | +54.2% | WIN · 144 rushing yards | Game |