Published Record
1-1-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Alec Pierce NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Alec Pierce. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
50.0%
Published Plays
2
Modeled Lines Stored
2
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
No current-week research chart is available for this player yet.
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 2
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sun, Sep 20, 7:20 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -172
Projection3.0
Model win45.0%
No-vig edge-14.0%
Model-implied EV-28.8%
No-vig market59.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 43.5
OVER 43.5 -114
Projection60.9
Model win59.0%
No-vig edge+9.0%
Model-implied EV+10.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
17.4 above line
Market 43.5
PDR 60.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 60.9 is 17.4 above the 43.5 line.
Model win probability 59.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 59.0% model win, +9.0% no-vig edge, and +10.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.