Published Record
7-5-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Kyle Pitts NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Kyle Pitts. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
58.3%
Published Plays
12
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · OVER 3.5
Projection 5.2Cleared line 38%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 35.5
Projection 56.9Cleared line 38%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
OVER 3.5 -122
Projection5.2
Model win66.0%
No-vig edge+14.3%
Model-implied EV+20.0%
No-vig market51.6%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.7 above line
Market 3.5
PDR 5.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 5.2 is 1.7 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 66.0% vs 51.6% no-vig market probability creates a +14.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.0% model win, +14.3% no-vig edge, and +20.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 35.5
OVER 35.5 -113
Projection56.9
Model win64.9%
No-vig edge+14.9%
Model-implied EV+22.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
21.4 above line
Market 35.5
PDR 56.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 56.9 is 21.4 above the 35.5 line.
Model win probability 64.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.9% model win, +14.9% no-vig edge, and +22.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
OVER 3.5 +106
Projection5.3
Model win67.8%
No-vig edge+22.4%
Model-implied EV+39.7%
No-vig market45.4%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.8 above line
Market 3.5
PDR 5.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 5.3 is 1.8 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 45.4% no-vig market probability creates a +22.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +22.4% no-vig edge, and +39.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 35.5
OVER 35.5 -114
Projection60.0
Model win70.4%
No-vig edge+20.4%
Model-implied EV+32.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
24.5 above line
Market 35.5
PDR 60.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 60.0 is 24.5 above the 35.5 line.
Model win probability 70.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.4% model win, +20.4% no-vig edge, and +32.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 2.5
OVER 2.5 -146
Projection5.3
Model win86.4%
No-vig edge+31.0%
Model-implied EV+45.7%
No-vig market55.5%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
2.8 above line
Market 2.5
PDR 5.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 5.3 is 2.8 above the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 86.4% vs 55.5% no-vig market probability creates a +31.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 86.4% model win, +31.0% no-vig edge, and +45.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 26.5
OVER 26.5 -114
Projection55.8
Model win77.0%
No-vig edge+27.0%
Model-implied EV+44.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
29.3 above line
Market 26.5
PDR 55.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 55.8 is 29.3 above the 26.5 line.
Model win probability 77.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +27.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.0% model win, +27.0% no-vig edge, and +44.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 11, 7:20 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 2.5
OVER 2.5 +102
Projection5.1
Model win82.2%
No-vig edge+36.0%
Model-implied EV+66.0%
No-vig market46.2%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
2.6 above line
Market 2.5
PDR 5.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 5.1 is 2.6 above the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 82.2% vs 46.2% no-vig market probability creates a +36.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 82.2% model win, +36.0% no-vig edge, and +66.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 24.5
OVER 24.5 -114
Projection54.4
Model win77.9%
No-vig edge+27.9%
Model-implied EV+46.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
29.9 above line
Market 24.5
PDR 54.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 54.4 is 29.9 above the 24.5 line.
Model win probability 77.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +27.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.9% model win, +27.9% no-vig edge, and +46.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Mon, Oct 5, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 2.5
OVER 2.5 -136
Projection5.6
Model win90.0%
No-vig edge+36.2%
Model-implied EV+56.2%
No-vig market53.8%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
3.1 above line
Market 2.5
PDR 5.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 5.6 is 3.1 above the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 90.0% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +36.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 90.0% model win, +36.2% no-vig edge, and +56.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 26.5
OVER 26.5 -114
Projection61.3
Model win84.1%
No-vig edge+34.1%
Model-implied EV+57.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
34.8 above line
Market 26.5
PDR 61.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 61.3 is 34.8 above the 26.5 line.
Model win probability 84.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +34.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 84.1% model win, +34.1% no-vig edge, and +57.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Thu, Sep 24, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
OVER 3.5 -114
Projection5.0
Model win62.2%
No-vig edge+12.2%
Model-implied EV+16.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.5 above line
Market 3.5
PDR 5.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 5.0 is 1.5 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 62.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 62.2% model win, +12.2% no-vig edge, and +16.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 35.5
OVER 35.5 -114
Projection54.1
Model win60.9%
No-vig edge+10.9%
Model-implied EV+14.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
18.6 above line
Market 35.5
PDR 54.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 54.1 is 18.6 above the 35.5 line.
Model win probability 60.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 60.9% model win, +10.9% no-vig edge, and +14.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 66.0% | +14.3% | +20.0% | LOSS · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 8 | Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving yards | OVER 35.5 | 64.9% | +14.9% | +22.3% | LOSS · 6 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 7 | San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 67.8% | +22.4% | +39.7% | WIN · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons | Receiving yards | OVER 35.5 | 70.4% | +20.4% | +32.2% | LOSS · 22 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | OVER 2.5 | 86.4% | +31.0% | +45.7% | WIN · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 6 | Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons | Receiving yards | OVER 26.5 | 77.0% | +27.0% | +44.6% | WIN · 60 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | OVER 2.5 | 82.2% | +36.0% | +66.0% | WIN · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 5 | Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons | Receiving yards | OVER 24.5 | 77.9% | +27.9% | +46.1% | WIN · 42 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints | Receptions | OVER 2.5 | 90.0% | +36.2% | +56.2% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints | Receiving yards | OVER 26.5 | 84.1% | +34.1% | +57.8% | WIN · 47 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 62.2% | +12.2% | +16.8% | LOSS · 1 reception | Game |
| Week 3 | Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers | Receiving yards | OVER 35.5 | 60.9% | +10.9% | +14.3% | LOSS · 5 receiving yards | Game |