Published Record
2-6-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Courtland Sutton NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Courtland Sutton. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
25.0%
Published Plays
8
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · OVER 3.5
Projection 4.0Cleared line 13%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 38.5
Projection 52.9Cleared line 38%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Sun, Nov 1, 2:25 PM CST
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER +102
Projection4.0
Model win45.0%
No-vig edge-1.2%
Model-implied EV-9.0%
No-vig market46.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 38.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection52.9
Model win54.5%
No-vig edge+4.5%
Model-implied EV+2.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun, Oct 25, 3:05 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
OVER 3.5 +116
Projection5.1
Model win64.9%
No-vig edge+21.6%
Model-implied EV+40.1%
No-vig market43.3%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.6 above line
Market 3.5
PDR 5.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 5.1 is 1.6 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 64.9% vs 43.3% no-vig market probability creates a +21.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.9% model win, +21.6% no-vig edge, and +40.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 35.5
OVER 35.5 -114
Projection56.4
Model win63.9%
No-vig edge+13.9%
Model-implied EV+19.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
20.9 above line
Market 35.5
PDR 56.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 56.4 is 20.9 above the 35.5 line.
Model win probability 63.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 63.9% model win, +13.9% no-vig edge, and +19.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos
Thu, Oct 15, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
OVER 3.5 +116
Projection4.9
Model win60.9%
No-vig edge+17.6%
Model-implied EV+31.5%
No-vig market43.3%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.4 above line
Market 3.5
PDR 4.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 4.9 is 1.4 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 60.9% vs 43.3% no-vig market probability creates a +17.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 60.9% model win, +17.6% no-vig edge, and +31.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 31.5
OVER 31.5 -114
Projection67.7
Model win85.6%
No-vig edge+35.6%
Model-implied EV+60.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
36.2 above line
Market 31.5
PDR 67.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 67.7 is 36.2 above the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 85.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.6% model win, +35.6% no-vig edge, and +60.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sun, Oct 11, 3:05 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER +120
Projection4.4
Model win52.0%
No-vig edge+9.5%
Model-implied EV+14.4%
No-vig market42.5%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 36.5
OVER 36.5 -114
Projection64.1
Model win75.1%
No-vig edge+25.1%
Model-implied EV+40.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
27.6 above line
Market 36.5
PDR 64.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 64.1 is 27.6 above the 36.5 line.
Model win probability 75.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.1% model win, +25.1% no-vig edge, and +40.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
OVER 3.5 +114
Projection5.1
Model win64.0%
No-vig edge+20.4%
Model-implied EV+37.0%
No-vig market43.7%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.6 above line
Market 3.5
PDR 5.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 5.1 is 1.6 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 64.0% vs 43.7% no-vig market probability creates a +20.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.0% model win, +20.4% no-vig edge, and +37.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 38.5
OVER 38.5 -114
Projection71.9
Model win82.2%
No-vig edge+32.2%
Model-implied EV+54.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
33.4 above line
Market 38.5
PDR 71.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 71.9 is 33.4 above the 38.5 line.
Model win probability 82.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +32.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 82.2% model win, +32.2% no-vig edge, and +54.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
Sun, Sep 20, 3:05 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -106
Projection4.2
Model win48.1%
No-vig edge+0.0%
Model-implied EV-6.5%
No-vig market48.1%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 41.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection56.4
Model win55.4%
No-vig edge+5.4%
Model-implied EV+4.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 | Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 64.9% | +21.6% | +40.1% | LOSS · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals | Receiving yards | OVER 35.5 | 63.9% | +13.9% | +19.9% | WIN · 45 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 60.9% | +17.6% | +31.5% | LOSS · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 6 | Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos | Receiving yards | OVER 31.5 | 85.6% | +35.6% | +60.7% | LOSS · 19 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving yards | OVER 36.5 | 75.1% | +25.1% | +40.9% | LOSS · 18 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 64.0% | +20.4% | +37.0% | LOSS · 1 reception | Game |
| Week 4 | Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers | Receiving yards | OVER 38.5 | 82.2% | +32.2% | +54.3% | LOSS · 4 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 71.5% | +13.2% | +14.6% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |