Published Record
4-3-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Rhamondre Stevenson NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Rhamondre Stevenson. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
57.1%
Published Plays
7
Modeled Lines Stored
16
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · OVER 58.5
Projection 66.2Cleared line 14%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 3.5
Projection 3.0Cleared line 71%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 24.5
Projection 29.6Cleared line 43%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Sun, Nov 1, 2:25 PM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 58.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection66.2
Model win45.6%
No-vig edge-4.4%
Model-implied EV-14.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -154
Projection3.0
Model win71.6%
No-vig edge+14.9%
Model-implied EV+18.1%
No-vig market56.7%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.5 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 3.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.0 is 0.5 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 71.6% vs 56.7% no-vig market probability creates a +14.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.6% model win, +14.9% no-vig edge, and +18.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 24.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection29.6
Model win40.1%
No-vig edge-9.9%
Model-implied EV-24.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
Thu, Oct 22, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 41.5
OVER 41.5 -113
Projection71.9
Model win76.1%
No-vig edge+26.1%
Model-implied EV+43.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
30.4 above line
Market 41.5
PDR 71.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 71.9 is 30.4 above the 41.5 line.
Model win probability 76.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 76.1% model win, +26.1% no-vig edge, and +43.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 42.5
OVER 42.5 -114
Projection71.9
Model win75.3%
No-vig edge+25.3%
Model-implied EV+41.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
29.4 above line
Market 42.5
PDR 71.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 71.9 is 29.4 above the 42.5 line.
Model win probability 75.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.3% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 75.3% model win, +25.3% no-vig edge, and +41.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -130
Projection2.9
Model win43.5%
No-vig edge-9.3%
Model-implied EV-23.0%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 18.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection31.3
Model win51.6%
No-vig edge+1.6%
Model-implied EV-3.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 70.5
UNDER 70.5 -114
Projection69.2
Model win64.3%
No-vig edge+14.3%
Model-implied EV+20.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.3 below line
Market 70.5
PDR 69.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 69.2 is 1.3 below the 70.5 line.
Model win probability 64.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.3% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 64.3% model win, +14.3% no-vig edge, and +20.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -158
Projection2.9
Model win42.9%
No-vig edge-14.2%
Model-implied EV-29.9%
No-vig market57.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 19.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection30.8
Model win49.7%
No-vig edge-0.3%
Model-implied EV-6.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 30.5
OVER 30.5 -114
Projection55.9
Model win70.0%
No-vig edge+20.0%
Model-implied EV+31.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
25.4 above line
Market 30.5
PDR 55.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 55.9 is 25.4 above the 30.5 line.
Model win probability 70.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.0% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 70.0% model win, +20.0% no-vig edge, and +31.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -138
Projection2.7
Model win39.8%
No-vig edge-14.4%
Model-implied EV-31.3%
No-vig market54.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 18.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection27.2
Model win45.3%
No-vig edge-4.7%
Model-implied EV-15.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 37.5
OVER 37.5 -114
Projection58.2
Model win63.4%
No-vig edge+13.4%
Model-implied EV+19.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
20.7 above line
Market 37.5
PDR 58.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 58.2 is 20.7 above the 37.5 line.
Model win probability 63.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.4% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 63.4% model win, +13.4% no-vig edge, and +19.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER +102
Projection3.4
Model win51.3%
No-vig edge+5.1%
Model-implied EV+3.6%
No-vig market46.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 14.5
OVER 14.5 -114
Projection32.6
Model win60.1%
No-vig edge+10.1%
Model-implied EV+12.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
18.1 above line
Market 14.5
PDR 32.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 32.6 is 18.1 above the 14.5 line.
Model win probability 60.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 60.1% model win, +10.1% no-vig edge, and +12.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 71.6% | +14.9% | +18.1% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears | Rushing yards | OVER 41.5 | 76.1% | +26.1% | +43.5% | LOSS · 22 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 7 | New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears | Rushing yards | OVER 42.5 | 75.3% | +25.3% | +41.3% | LOSS · 22 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 6 | New York Jets @ New England Patriots | Rushing yards | UNDER 70.5 | 64.3% | +14.3% | +20.7% | WIN · 36 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills | Rushing yards | OVER 30.5 | 70.0% | +20.0% | +31.4% | WIN · 47 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Rushing yards | OVER 37.5 | 63.4% | +13.4% | +19.1% | LOSS · 22 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving yards | OVER 14.5 | 60.1% | +10.1% | +12.8% | WIN · 16 receiving yards | Game |