Published Record
3-2-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Sam LaPorta NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Sam LaPorta. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
60.0%
Published Plays
5
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 4.5
Projection 3.4Cleared line 43%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · UNDER 49.5
Projection 41.2Cleared line 57%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -102
Projection3.4
Model win79.1%
No-vig edge+31.9%
Model-implied EV+56.7%
No-vig market47.2%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.1 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.4 is 1.1 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 79.1% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +31.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 79.1% model win, +31.9% no-vig edge, and +56.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 49.5
UNDER 49.5 -114
Projection41.2
Model win74.2%
No-vig edge+24.2%
Model-implied EV+39.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
8.3 below line
Market 49.5
PDR 41.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 41.2 is 8.3 below the 49.5 line.
Model win probability 74.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.2% model win, +24.2% no-vig edge, and +39.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 +112
Projection4.3
Model win66.3%
No-vig edge+22.2%
Model-implied EV+40.7%
No-vig market44.1%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.2 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.3 is 0.2 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 66.3% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +22.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.3% model win, +22.2% no-vig edge, and +40.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 49.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection51.6
Model win36.3%
No-vig edge-13.7%
Model-implied EV-31.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER -172
Projection4.7
Model win39.4%
No-vig edge-19.6%
Model-implied EV-37.7%
No-vig market59.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 52.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection60.9
Model win45.0%
No-vig edge-5.0%
Model-implied EV-15.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Sun, Oct 4, 7:20 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -122
Projection4.5
Model win64.2%
No-vig edge+12.7%
Model-implied EV+16.7%
No-vig market51.4%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.0 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.5 is 0.0 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 64.2% vs 51.4% no-vig market probability creates a +12.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.2% model win, +12.7% no-vig edge, and +16.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 48.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection56.3
Model win44.1%
No-vig edge-5.9%
Model-implied EV-17.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
New York Jets @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection4.7
Model win38.8%
No-vig edge-11.2%
Model-implied EV-27.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 45.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection59.7
Model win54.3%
No-vig edge+4.3%
Model-implied EV+1.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
Thu, Sep 17, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -136
Projection4.2
Model win68.8%
No-vig edge+15.1%
Model-implied EV+19.5%
No-vig market53.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.2 is 0.3 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 68.8% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +15.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.8% model win, +15.1% no-vig edge, and +19.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 46.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection48.5
Model win36.1%
No-vig edge-13.9%
Model-implied EV-32.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 79.1% | +31.9% | +56.7% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 8 | Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions | Receiving yards | UNDER 49.5 | 74.2% | +24.2% | +39.3% | WIN · 33 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 66.3% | +22.2% | +40.7% | WIN · 1 reception | Game |
| Week 4 | Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 64.2% | +12.7% | +16.7% | LOSS · 8 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 68.8% | +15.1% | +19.5% | LOSS · 6 receptions | Game |