WEEK 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CDT

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals

9 qualified model plays · 0 modeled lines did not qualify · 6-2-0 - 1 void

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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 9 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.

Avg model win 67.6% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.

Avg no-vig edge +16.4% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.

Avg model-implied EV +23.8% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →

QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Emeka Egbuka

Receptions

LOSS

UNDER 4.5

FanDuel

Projection 3.1

Proj. gap -1.4

Model win 82.2%

No-vig market 58.3%

No-vig edge +23.9%

Model-implied EV +31.7%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 5 receptions

#2 MODEL PLAY

Emeka Egbuka

Receiving yards

LOSS

UNDER 54.5

FanDuel

Projection 44.6

Proj. gap -9.9

Model win 75.3%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +25.3%

Model-implied EV +41.4%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 63 receiving yards

#3 MODEL PLAY

Ja'Marr Chase

Receptions

WIN

UNDER 7.5

FanDuel

Projection 6.8

Proj. gap -0.7

Model win 74.0%

No-vig market 56.7%

No-vig edge +17.3%

Model-implied EV +22.1%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 2 receptions

#4 MODEL PLAY

Ja'Marr Chase

Receiving yards

WIN

UNDER 85.5

FanDuel

Projection 84.2

Proj. gap -1.3

Model win 68.0%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +18.0%

Model-implied EV +27.7%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 12 receiving yards

#5 MODEL PLAY

Bucky Irving

Rushing yards

WIN

UNDER 58.5

FanDuel

Projection 54.7

Proj. gap -3.8

Model win 66.8%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +16.8%

Model-implied EV +25.5%

Historical residual sample: 796

Final: 45 rushing yards

#6 MODEL PLAY

Tee Higgins

Receptions

WIN

UNDER 4.5

FanDuel

Projection 4.4

Proj. gap -0.1

Model win 64.6%

No-vig market 45.4%

No-vig edge +19.2%

Model-implied EV +33.1%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 3 receptions

#7 MODEL PLAY

Joe Burrow

Passing yards

WIN

UNDER 267.5

FanDuel

Projection 246.3

Proj. gap -21.2

Model win 61.0%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +11.0%

Model-implied EV +14.6%

Historical residual sample: 516

Final: 254 passing yards

#8 MODEL PLAY

Baker Mayfield

Passing yards

WIN

UNDER 232.5

FanDuel

Projection 218.2

Proj. gap -14.3

Model win 58.3%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +8.3%

Model-implied EV +9.5%

Historical residual sample: 516

Final: 216 passing yards

#9 MODEL PLAY

Jalen McMillan

Receiving yards

VOID

OVER 34.5

FanDuel

Projection 51.1

Proj. gap +16.6

Model win 57.9%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +7.9%

Model-implied EV +8.7%

Historical residual sample: 2154