Published Record
7-3-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Jaylen Waddle NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Jaylen Waddle. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
70.0%
Published Plays
10
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 3.5
Projection 3.1Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 37.5
Projection 42.5Cleared line 38%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Sun, Nov 1, 2:25 PM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 +102
Projection3.1
Model win69.9%
No-vig edge+23.7%
Model-implied EV+41.2%
No-vig market46.2%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 3.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.1 is 0.4 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 69.9% vs 46.2% no-vig market probability creates a +23.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.9% model win, +23.7% no-vig edge, and +41.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 37.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection42.5
Model win39.9%
No-vig edge-10.1%
Model-implied EV-24.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun, Oct 25, 3:05 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 +112
Projection4.2
Model win68.4%
No-vig edge+24.2%
Model-implied EV+45.0%
No-vig market44.1%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.2 is 0.3 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 68.4% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +24.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.4% model win, +24.2% no-vig edge, and +45.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 54.5
UNDER 54.5 -114
Projection46.0
Model win74.4%
No-vig edge+24.4%
Model-implied EV+39.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
8.5 below line
Market 54.5
PDR 46.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 46.0 is 8.5 below the 54.5 line.
Model win probability 74.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.4% model win, +24.4% no-vig edge, and +39.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos
Thu, Oct 15, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -114
Projection4.0
Model win71.6%
No-vig edge+21.6%
Model-implied EV+34.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.5 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.0 is 0.5 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 71.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.6% model win, +21.6% no-vig edge, and +34.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 49.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection57.3
Model win44.2%
No-vig edge-5.8%
Model-implied EV-17.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sun, Oct 11, 3:05 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -136
Projection3.6
Model win77.3%
No-vig edge+23.5%
Model-implied EV+34.1%
No-vig market53.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.9 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.6 is 0.9 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 77.3% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +23.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.3% model win, +23.5% no-vig edge, and +34.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 51.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection53.8
Model win36.4%
No-vig edge-13.6%
Model-implied EV-31.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -138
Projection4.2
Model win69.4%
No-vig edge+15.2%
Model-implied EV+19.6%
No-vig market54.2%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.2 is 0.3 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 69.4% vs 54.2% no-vig market probability creates a +15.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.4% model win, +15.2% no-vig edge, and +19.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 56.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection61.3
Model win39.7%
No-vig edge-10.3%
Model-implied EV-25.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
Sun, Sep 20, 3:05 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -146
Projection3.3
Model win80.1%
No-vig edge+24.6%
Model-implied EV+34.9%
No-vig market55.5%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.2 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.3 is 1.2 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 80.1% vs 55.5% no-vig market probability creates a +24.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.1% model win, +24.6% no-vig edge, and +34.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 52.5
UNDER 52.5 -114
Projection46.1
Model win72.7%
No-vig edge+22.7%
Model-implied EV+36.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
6.4 below line
Market 52.5
PDR 46.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 46.1 is 6.4 below the 52.5 line.
Model win probability 72.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.7% model win, +22.7% no-vig edge, and +36.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 69.9% | +23.7% | +41.2% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 68.4% | +24.2% | +45.0% | WIN · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals | Receiving yards | UNDER 54.5 | 74.4% | +24.4% | +39.7% | WIN · 48 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 71.6% | +21.6% | +34.5% | WIN · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 5 | Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 77.3% | +23.5% | +34.1% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 69.4% | +15.2% | +19.6% | LOSS · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 80.1% | +24.6% | +34.9% | LOSS · 8 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos | Receiving yards | UNDER 52.5 | 72.7% | +22.7% | +36.6% | LOSS · 138 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 81.3% | +31.3% | +52.6% | WIN · 1 reception | Game |
| Week 1 | Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving yards | UNDER 53.5 | 76.1% | +26.1% | +42.9% | WIN · 2 receiving yards | Game |