Published Record
3-1-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Keenan Allen NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Keenan Allen. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
75.0%
Published Plays
4
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 4.5
Projection 4.2Cleared line 17%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 35.5
Projection 42.2Cleared line 67%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -122
Projection4.2
Model win68.8%
No-vig edge+17.4%
Model-implied EV+25.3%
No-vig market51.4%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.2 is 0.3 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 68.8% vs 51.4% no-vig market probability creates a +17.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.8% model win, +17.4% no-vig edge, and +25.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 35.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection42.2
Model win42.1%
No-vig edge-7.9%
Model-implied EV-20.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -130
Projection4.6
Model win54.3%
No-vig edge+1.5%
Model-implied EV-3.9%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 39.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection48.7
Model win46.2%
No-vig edge-3.8%
Model-implied EV-13.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 2.5
OVER 2.5 -192
Projection4.4
Model win71.9%
No-vig edge+10.5%
Model-implied EV+9.4%
No-vig market61.4%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.9 above line
Market 2.5
PDR 4.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 4.4 is 1.9 above the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 71.9% vs 61.4% no-vig market probability creates a +10.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.9% model win, +10.5% no-vig edge, and +9.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 27.5
OVER 27.5 -114
Projection50.8
Model win68.2%
No-vig edge+18.2%
Model-implied EV+28.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
23.3 above line
Market 27.5
PDR 50.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 50.8 is 23.3 above the 27.5 line.
Model win probability 68.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.2% model win, +18.2% no-vig edge, and +28.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
Sun, Oct 4, 8:30 AM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -108
Projection4.8
Model win57.4%
No-vig edge+8.8%
Model-implied EV+10.5%
No-vig market48.6%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 33.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection48.1
Model win54.8%
No-vig edge+4.8%
Model-implied EV+2.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection4.4
Model win51.4%
No-vig edge+1.4%
Model-implied EV-3.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 33.5
OVER 33.5 -114
Projection52.5
Model win61.5%
No-vig edge+11.5%
Model-implied EV+15.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
19.0 above line
Market 33.5
PDR 52.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 52.5 is 19.0 above the 33.5 line.
Model win probability 61.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 61.5% model win, +11.5% no-vig edge, and +15.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sun, Sep 20, 7:20 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -130
Projection4.1
Model win47.1%
No-vig edge-5.7%
Model-implied EV-16.6%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 30.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection39.0
Model win45.1%
No-vig edge-4.9%
Model-implied EV-15.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 68.8% | +17.4% | +25.3% | LOSS · 7 receptions | Game |
| Week 5 | Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | OVER 2.5 | 71.9% | +10.5% | +9.4% | WIN · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 5 | Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving yards | OVER 27.5 | 68.2% | +18.2% | +28.1% | WIN · 45 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts | Receiving yards | OVER 33.5 | 61.5% | +11.5% | +15.5% | WIN · 63 receiving yards | Game |