Published Record
4-4-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Kenneth Walker III NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Kenneth Walker III. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
50.0%
Published Plays
8
Modeled Lines Stored
13
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · UNDER 85.5
Projection 56.7Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 3.5
Projection 2.5Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 18.5
Projection 18.6Cleared line 33%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Sun, Nov 1, 2:25 PM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 85.5
UNDER 85.5 -113
Projection56.7
Model win85.3%
No-vig edge+35.3%
Model-implied EV+60.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
28.8 below line
Market 85.5
PDR 56.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 56.7 is 28.8 below the 85.5 line.
Model win probability 85.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.3% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 85.3% model win, +35.3% no-vig edge, and +60.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -188
Projection2.5
Model win77.6%
No-vig edge+16.5%
Model-implied EV+18.8%
No-vig market61.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.0 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 2.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.5 is 1.0 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 77.6% vs 61.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.6% model win, +16.5% no-vig edge, and +18.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 18.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection18.6
Model win33.3%
No-vig edge-16.7%
Model-implied EV-37.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
Sun, Oct 25, 7:20 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 88.5
UNDER 88.5 -114
Projection58.4
Model win86.2%
No-vig edge+36.2%
Model-implied EV+61.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
30.1 below line
Market 88.5
PDR 58.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 58.4 is 30.1 below the 88.5 line.
Model win probability 86.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +36.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 86.2% model win, +36.2% no-vig edge, and +61.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 86.5
UNDER 86.5 -114
Projection63.3
Model win81.3%
No-vig edge+31.3%
Model-implied EV+52.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
23.2 below line
Market 86.5
PDR 63.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 63.3 is 23.2 below the 86.5 line.
Model win probability 81.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +31.3% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 81.3% model win, +31.3% no-vig edge, and +52.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -138
Projection2.8
Model win40.4%
No-vig edge-13.8%
Model-implied EV-30.3%
No-vig market54.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 19.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection22.1
Model win36.8%
No-vig edge-13.2%
Model-implied EV-31.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 85.5
UNDER 85.5 -114
Projection69.7
Model win77.4%
No-vig edge+27.4%
Model-implied EV+45.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
15.8 below line
Market 85.5
PDR 69.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 69.7 is 15.8 below the 85.5 line.
Model win probability 77.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +27.4% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 77.4% model win, +27.4% no-vig edge, and +45.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -160
Projection2.6
Model win77.1%
No-vig edge+19.6%
Model-implied EV+25.3%
No-vig market57.5%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.9 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 2.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.6 is 0.9 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 77.1% vs 57.5% no-vig market probability creates a +19.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.1% model win, +19.6% no-vig edge, and +25.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 22.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection23.1
Model win34.0%
No-vig edge-16.0%
Model-implied EV-36.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sun, Sep 20, 7:20 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 73.5
UNDER 73.5 -114
Projection72.2
Model win64.3%
No-vig edge+14.3%
Model-implied EV+20.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.3 below line
Market 73.5
PDR 72.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 72.2 is 1.3 below the 73.5 line.
Model win probability 64.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.3% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 64.3% model win, +14.3% no-vig edge, and +20.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -160
Projection2.5
Model win36.7%
No-vig edge-20.8%
Model-implied EV-40.3%
No-vig market57.5%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 18.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection20.7
Model win36.3%
No-vig edge-13.7%
Model-implied EV-31.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos | Rushing yards | UNDER 85.5 | 85.3% | +35.3% | +60.8% | WIN · 69 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 8 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 77.6% | +16.5% | +18.8% | LOSS · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks | Rushing yards | UNDER 88.5 | 86.2% | +36.2% | +61.8% | WIN · 36 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders | Rushing yards | UNDER 86.5 | 81.3% | +31.3% | +52.6% | LOSS · 177 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins | Rushing yards | UNDER 85.5 | 77.4% | +27.4% | +45.3% | WIN · 70 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 77.1% | +19.6% | +25.3% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing yards | UNDER 73.5 | 64.3% | +14.3% | +20.7% | LOSS · 117 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing yards | UNDER 59.5 | 65.3% | +15.3% | +22.6% | LOSS · 173 rushing yards | Game |