Published Record
3-2-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Jameson Williams NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Jameson Williams. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
60.0%
Published Plays
5
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · OVER 3.5
Projection 4.6Cleared line 71%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 51.5
Projection 61.0Cleared line 43%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER +102
Projection4.6
Model win54.2%
No-vig edge+8.0%
Model-implied EV+9.5%
No-vig market46.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 51.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection61.0
Model win46.5%
No-vig edge-3.5%
Model-implied EV-12.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
OVER 3.5 -138
Projection5.2
Model win66.4%
No-vig edge+12.2%
Model-implied EV+14.6%
No-vig market54.2%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.7 above line
Market 3.5
PDR 5.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 5.2 is 1.7 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 66.4% vs 54.2% no-vig market probability creates a +12.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.4% model win, +12.2% no-vig edge, and +14.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 54.5
OVER 54.5 -114
Projection76.8
Model win66.3%
No-vig edge+16.3%
Model-implied EV+24.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
22.3 above line
Market 54.5
PDR 76.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 76.8 is 22.3 above the 54.5 line.
Model win probability 66.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.3% model win, +16.3% no-vig edge, and +24.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
OVER 3.5 -108
Projection5.3
Model win69.6%
No-vig edge+21.0%
Model-implied EV+34.0%
No-vig market48.6%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.8 above line
Market 3.5
PDR 5.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 5.3 is 1.8 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 69.6% vs 48.6% no-vig market probability creates a +21.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.6% model win, +21.0% no-vig edge, and +34.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 51.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection67.8
Model win57.4%
No-vig edge+7.4%
Model-implied EV+7.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Sun, Oct 4, 7:20 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
OVER 3.5 -102
Projection4.9
Model win60.9%
No-vig edge+13.7%
Model-implied EV+20.6%
No-vig market47.2%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.4 above line
Market 3.5
PDR 4.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 4.9 is 1.4 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 60.9% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +13.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 60.9% model win, +13.7% no-vig edge, and +20.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 49.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection65.8
Model win57.3%
No-vig edge+7.3%
Model-implied EV+7.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
New York Jets @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER +124
Projection5.4
Model win51.6%
No-vig edge+9.9%
Model-implied EV+15.6%
No-vig market41.7%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 54.5
OVER 54.5 -114
Projection81.0
Model win73.1%
No-vig edge+23.1%
Model-implied EV+37.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
26.5 above line
Market 54.5
PDR 81.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 81.0 is 26.5 above the 54.5 line.
Model win probability 73.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.1% model win, +23.1% no-vig edge, and +37.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
Thu, Sep 17, 7:15 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -140
Projection4.7
Model win57.2%
No-vig edge+2.6%
Model-implied EV-1.9%
No-vig market54.6%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 57.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection64.3
Model win42.3%
No-vig edge-7.7%
Model-implied EV-20.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 | Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 66.4% | +12.2% | +14.6% | WIN · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Receiving yards | OVER 54.5 | 66.3% | +16.3% | +24.4% | WIN · 91 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 69.6% | +21.0% | +34.0% | LOSS · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 60.9% | +13.7% | +20.6% | WIN · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | New York Jets @ Detroit Lions | Receiving yards | OVER 54.5 | 73.1% | +23.1% | +37.3% | LOSS · 49 receiving yards | Game |