WEEK 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CDT

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts

9 qualified model plays · 0 modeled lines did not qualify · 5-4-0

← Back to Week 1

MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 9 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.

Avg model win 71.4% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.

Avg no-vig edge +20.9% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.

Avg model-implied EV +33.0% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →

QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Derrick Henry

Rushing yards

WIN

OVER 80.5

FanDuel

Projection 115.8

Proj. gap +35.3

Model win 82.2%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +32.2%

Model-implied EV +54.2%

Historical residual sample: 796

Final: 144 rushing yards

#2 MODEL PLAY

Alec Pierce

Receiving yards

WIN

OVER 46.5

FanDuel

Projection 78.3

Proj. gap +31.8

Model win 80.1%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +30.1%

Model-implied EV +50.4%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 61 receiving yards

#3 MODEL PLAY

Jonathan Taylor

Rushing yards

LOSS

UNDER 76.5

FanDuel

Projection 60.1

Proj. gap -16.4

Model win 77.6%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +27.6%

Model-implied EV +45.7%

Historical residual sample: 796

Final: 98 rushing yards

#4 MODEL PLAY

Tyler Warren

Receiving yards

WIN

UNDER 45.5

FanDuel

Projection 34.1

Proj. gap -11.4

Model win 76.8%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +26.8%

Model-implied EV +44.1%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 13 receiving yards

#5 MODEL PLAY

Tyler Warren

Receptions

WIN

UNDER 4.5

FanDuel

Projection 3.9

Proj. gap -0.6

Model win 73.4%

No-vig market 47.2%

No-vig edge +26.2%

Model-implied EV +45.4%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 3 receptions

#6 MODEL PLAY

Mark Andrews

Receptions

LOSS

UNDER 3.5

FanDuel

Projection 3.1

Proj. gap -0.4

Model win 69.8%

No-vig market 56.7%

No-vig edge +13.1%

Model-implied EV +15.1%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 4 receptions

#7 MODEL PLAY

Zay Flowers

Receiving yards

WIN

OVER 63.5

FanDuel

Projection 84.7

Proj. gap +21.2

Model win 64.4%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +14.4%

Model-implied EV +20.9%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 150 receiving yards

#8 MODEL PLAY

Lamar Jackson

Passing yards

LOSS

UNDER 220.5

FanDuel

Projection 203.2

Proj. gap -17.3

Model win 59.7%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +9.7%

Model-implied EV +12.0%

Historical residual sample: 516

Final: 324 passing yards

#9 MODEL PLAY

Josh Downs

Receiving yards

LOSS

OVER 43.5

FanDuel

Projection 60.4

Proj. gap +16.9

Model win 58.3%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +8.3%

Model-implied EV +9.5%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 37 receiving yards