Published Record
1-1-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Sam Darnold NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Sam Darnold. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
50.0%
Published Plays
3
Modeled Lines Stored
4
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · UNDER 1.5
Projection 1.2Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · UNDER 237.5
Projection 229.2Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Mon, Nov 2, 6:15 PM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 -118
Projection1.2
Model win59.3%
No-vig edge+8.7%
Model-implied EV+9.6%
No-vig market50.6%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.2 is 0.3 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 59.3% vs 50.6% no-vig market probability creates a +8.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.3% model win, +8.7% no-vig edge, and +9.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 237.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection229.2
Model win55.4%
No-vig edge+5.4%
Model-implied EV+4.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
Sun, Oct 25, 7:20 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -162
Projection1.2
Model win58.7%
No-vig edge+0.9%
Model-implied EV-5.0%
No-vig market57.9%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 224.5
UNDER 224.5 -114
Projection210.3
Model win58.3%
No-vig edge+8.3%
Model-implied EV+9.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
14.2 below line
Market 224.5
PDR 210.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 210.3 is 14.2 below the 224.5 line.
Model win probability 58.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.3% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.3% model win, +8.3% no-vig edge, and +9.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 59.3% | +8.7% | +9.6% | Pending | Game |
| Week 7 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks | Passing yards | UNDER 224.5 | 58.3% | +8.3% | +9.5% | LOSS · 257 passing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks | Passing yards | UNDER 228.5 | 66.1% | +16.1% | +24.1% | WIN · 13 passing yards | Game |