WEEK 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 7:20 PM CDT

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

11 qualified model plays · 0 modeled lines did not qualify · 6-4-0 - 1 void
← Back to Week 1
MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 11 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 69.7% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +17.6% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +25.6% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

CeeDee Lamb

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 6.5
FanDuel
Projection 5.1
Proj. gap -1.4
Model win 82.2%
No-vig market 56.7%
No-vig edge +25.5%
Model-implied EV +35.6%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
#2 MODEL PLAY

CeeDee Lamb

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 76.5
FanDuel
Projection 65.7
Proj. gap -10.8
Model win 76.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +26.1%
Model-implied EV +42.9%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 44 receiving yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

George Pickens

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 5.5
FanDuel
Projection 4.7
Proj. gap -0.8
Model win 75.5%
No-vig market 58.3%
No-vig edge +17.2%
Model-implied EV +21.0%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
#4 MODEL PLAY

Dak Prescott

Passing yards
WIN
UNDER 260.5
FanDuel
Projection 211.6
Proj. gap -48.9
Model win 75.0%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +25.0%
Model-implied EV +40.8%
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 175 passing yards
#5 MODEL PLAY

Malik Nabers

Receptions
LOSS
UNDER 5.5
FanDuel
Projection 5.0
Proj. gap -0.5
Model win 71.7%
No-vig market 56.7%
No-vig edge +15.0%
Model-implied EV +18.3%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 6 receptions
#6 MODEL PLAY

Javonte Williams

Rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 73.5
FanDuel
Projection 67.3
Proj. gap -6.2
Model win 69.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +19.8%
Model-implied EV +31.1%
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 41 rushing yards
#7 MODEL PLAY

George Pickens

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 69.5
FanDuel
Projection 68.2
Proj. gap -1.3
Model win 68.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +18.1%
Model-implied EV +27.8%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 28 receiving yards
#8 MODEL PLAY

Jaxson Dart

Passing TDs
LOSS
UNDER 1.5
FanDuel
Projection 1.0
Proj. gap -0.5
Model win 67.4%
No-vig market 58.6%
No-vig edge +8.8%
Model-implied EV +7.6%
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 3 passing TDs
#9 MODEL PLAY

Jaxson Dart

Passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 217.5
FanDuel
Projection 191.8
Proj. gap -25.7
Model win 63.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +13.2%
Model-implied EV +18.6%
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 230 passing yards
#10 MODEL PLAY

Cam Skattebo

Rushing yards
VOID
OVER 51.5
FanDuel
Projection 69.2
Proj. gap +17.7
Model win 59.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +9.2%
Model-implied EV +11.1%
Historical residual sample: 796
#11 MODEL PLAY

Dak Prescott

Passing TDs
LOSS
UNDER 1.5
FanDuel
Projection 1.3
Proj. gap -0.2
Model win 57.9%
No-vig market 42.8%
No-vig edge +15.1%
Model-implied EV +26.3%
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 2 passing TDs
PDR is part of The Buffet. Turn your sports takes into challenges with friends at Buffet Bets →