WEEK 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CDT

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans

9 qualified model plays · 0 modeled lines did not qualify · 1-7-0 - 1 void

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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 9 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.

Avg model win 72.1% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.

Avg no-vig edge +22.7% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.

Avg model-implied EV +36.9% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →

QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Wan'Dale Robinson

Receiving yards

LOSS

OVER 41.5

FanDuel

Projection 76.9

Proj. gap +35.4

Model win 84.9%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +34.9%

Model-implied EV +59.4%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 38 receiving yards

#2 MODEL PLAY

Calvin Ridley

Receiving yards

VOID

OVER 27.5

FanDuel

Projection 60.8

Proj. gap +33.3

Model win 82.2%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +32.2%

Model-implied EV +54.3%

Historical residual sample: 2154

#3 MODEL PLAY

Tony Pollard

Rushing yards

LOSS

OVER 54.5

FanDuel

Projection 84.6

Proj. gap +30.1

Model win 75.9%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +25.9%

Model-implied EV +42.4%

Historical residual sample: 796

Final: 35 rushing yards

#4 MODEL PLAY

Garrett Wilson

Receptions

LOSS

UNDER 5.5

FanDuel

Projection 4.8

Proj. gap -0.7

Model win 74.1%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +24.1%

Model-implied EV +39.1%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 6 receptions

#5 MODEL PLAY

Wan'Dale Robinson

Receptions

WIN

OVER 4.5

FanDuel

Projection 6.5

Proj. gap +2.0

Model win 73.6%

No-vig market 45.4%

No-vig edge +28.2%

Model-implied EV +51.6%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 5 receptions

#6 MODEL PLAY

Garrett Wilson

Receiving yards

LOSS

UNDER 61.5

FanDuel

Projection 57.6

Proj. gap -3.9

Model win 70.5%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +20.5%

Model-implied EV +32.3%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 79 receiving yards

#7 MODEL PLAY

Breece Hall

Rushing yards

LOSS

UNDER 64.5

FanDuel

Projection 59.0

Proj. gap -5.5

Model win 69.1%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +19.1%

Model-implied EV +29.7%

Historical residual sample: 796

Final: 102 rushing yards

#8 MODEL PLAY

Tyjae Spears

Rushing yards

LOSS

OVER 22.5

FanDuel

Projection 41.9

Proj. gap +19.4

Model win 61.6%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +11.6%

Model-implied EV +15.6%

Historical residual sample: 796

Final: 12 rushing yards

#9 MODEL PLAY

Geno Smith

Passing yards

LOSS

UNDER 212.5

FanDuel

Projection 200.0

Proj. gap -12.5

Model win 57.6%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +7.6%

Model-implied EV +8.0%

Historical residual sample: 516

Final: 215 passing yards