Published Record
3-1-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Xavier Worthy NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Xavier Worthy. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
75.0%
Published Plays
4
Modeled Lines Stored
8
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 3.5
Projection 3.2Cleared line 60%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 29.5
Projection 44.2Cleared line 20%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Sun, Nov 1, 2:25 PM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -154
Projection3.2
Model win69.5%
No-vig edge+12.8%
Model-implied EV+14.7%
No-vig market56.7%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 3.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.2 is 0.3 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 69.5% vs 56.7% no-vig market probability creates a +12.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.5% model win, +12.8% no-vig edge, and +14.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 29.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection44.2
Model win55.1%
No-vig edge+5.1%
Model-implied EV+3.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: UNDER -180
Projection3.4
Model win65.8%
No-vig edge+5.8%
Model-implied EV+2.4%
No-vig market60.1%
Samples2154
Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 33.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection48.3
Model win55.1%
No-vig edge+5.1%
Model-implied EV+3.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -128
Projection3.4
Model win65.6%
No-vig edge+13.1%
Model-implied EV+16.8%
No-vig market52.4%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.1 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 3.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.4 is 0.1 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 65.6% vs 52.4% no-vig market probability creates a +13.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 65.6% model win, +13.1% no-vig edge, and +16.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 35.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection50.0
Model win54.7%
No-vig edge+4.7%
Model-implied EV+2.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sun, Sep 20, 7:20 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -140
Projection3.3
Model win66.5%
No-vig edge+11.9%
Model-implied EV+14.0%
No-vig market54.6%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.2 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 3.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.3 is 0.2 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 66.5% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +11.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.5% model win, +11.9% no-vig edge, and +14.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 37.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection51.1
Model win52.9%
No-vig edge+2.9%
Model-implied EV-0.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 69.5% | +12.8% | +14.7% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 65.6% | +13.1% | +16.8% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 66.5% | +11.9% | +14.0% | LOSS · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 1 | Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 69.6% | +12.9% | +14.8% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |