Published Record
3-3-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Stefon Diggs NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Stefon Diggs. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
50.0%
Published Plays
6
Modeled Lines Stored
8
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · OVER 4.5
Projection 4.9Cleared line 40%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 42.5
Projection 70.4Cleared line 40%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Sun, Nov 1, 6:20 PM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER +132
Projection4.9
Model win43.0%
No-vig edge+2.8%
Model-implied EV-0.3%
No-vig market40.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 42.5
OVER 42.5 -113
Projection70.4
Model win75.3%
No-vig edge+25.3%
Model-implied EV+42.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
27.9 above line
Market 42.5
PDR 70.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 70.4 is 27.9 above the 42.5 line.
Model win probability 75.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.3% model win, +25.3% no-vig edge, and +42.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
Sun, Oct 4, 8:30 AM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER +116
Projection5.5
Model win52.3%
No-vig edge+9.0%
Model-implied EV+12.9%
No-vig market43.3%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 41.5
OVER 41.5 -114
Projection77.4
Model win85.4%
No-vig edge+35.4%
Model-implied EV+60.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
35.9 above line
Market 41.5
PDR 77.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 77.4 is 35.9 above the 41.5 line.
Model win probability 85.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.4% model win, +35.4% no-vig edge, and +60.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
OVER 3.5 -174
Projection5.4
Model win71.8%
No-vig edge+12.4%
Model-implied EV+13.0%
No-vig market59.4%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.9 above line
Market 3.5
PDR 5.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 5.4 is 1.9 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 71.8% vs 59.4% no-vig market probability creates a +12.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.8% model win, +12.4% no-vig edge, and +13.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 34.5
OVER 34.5 -114
Projection77.7
Model win91.5%
No-vig edge+41.5%
Model-implied EV+71.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
43.2 above line
Market 34.5
PDR 77.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 77.7 is 43.2 above the 34.5 line.
Model win probability 91.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +41.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 91.5% model win, +41.5% no-vig edge, and +71.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
Sun, Sep 20, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER -132
Projection5.5
Model win52.7%
No-vig edge-0.5%
Model-implied EV-7.4%
No-vig market53.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 44.5
OVER 44.5 -114
Projection78.3
Model win82.8%
No-vig edge+32.8%
Model-implied EV+55.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
33.8 above line
Market 44.5
PDR 78.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 78.3 is 33.8 above the 44.5 line.
Model win probability 82.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +32.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 82.8% model win, +32.8% no-vig edge, and +55.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders | Receiving yards | OVER 42.5 | 75.3% | +25.3% | +42.0% | LOSS · 38 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders | Receiving yards | OVER 41.5 | 85.4% | +35.4% | +60.3% | LOSS · 35 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 71.8% | +12.4% | +13.0% | WIN · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders | Receiving yards | OVER 34.5 | 91.5% | +41.5% | +71.7% | LOSS · 33 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys | Receiving yards | OVER 44.5 | 82.8% | +32.8% | +55.4% | WIN · 47 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles | Receiving yards | OVER 42.5 | 76.6% | +26.6% | +43.8% | WIN · 55 receiving yards | Game |