Published Record
3-1-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Jared Goff NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Jared Goff. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
75.0%
Published Plays
4
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · OVER 1.5
Projection 1.8Cleared line 71%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · UNDER 263.5
Projection 231.2Cleared line 29%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER -130
Projection1.8
Model win57.0%
No-vig edge+4.2%
Model-implied EV+0.8%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 263.5
UNDER 263.5 -114
Projection231.2
Model win65.7%
No-vig edge+15.7%
Model-implied EV+23.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
32.3 below line
Market 263.5
PDR 231.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 231.2 is 32.3 below the 263.5 line.
Model win probability 65.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 65.7% model win, +15.7% no-vig edge, and +23.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER -230
Projection1.9
Model win59.9%
No-vig edge-5.2%
Model-implied EV-14.1%
No-vig market65.1%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 278.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection270.0
Model win55.8%
No-vig edge+5.8%
Model-implied EV+4.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: UNDER -210
Projection1.8
Model win69.4%
No-vig edge+6.1%
Model-implied EV+2.4%
No-vig market63.2%
Samples516
Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 280.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection283.9
Model win50.8%
No-vig edge+0.8%
Model-implied EV-4.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Sun, Oct 4, 7:20 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER -174
Projection1.8
Model win58.7%
No-vig edge-0.6%
Model-implied EV-7.5%
No-vig market59.4%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 260.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection255.9
Model win53.5%
No-vig edge+3.5%
Model-implied EV+0.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
New York Jets @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER -205
Projection1.8
Model win58.7%
No-vig edge-4.2%
Model-implied EV-12.6%
No-vig market62.9%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 258.5
OVER 258.5 -114
Projection288.8
Model win60.7%
No-vig edge+10.7%
Model-implied EV+13.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
30.3 above line
Market 258.5
PDR 288.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 288.8 is 30.3 above the 258.5 line.
Model win probability 60.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 60.7% model win, +10.7% no-vig edge, and +13.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
Thu, Sep 17, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -130
Projection1.9
Model win59.5%
No-vig edge+6.7%
Model-implied EV+5.3%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 1.9 is 0.4 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 59.5% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +6.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.5% model win, +6.7% no-vig edge, and +5.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 270.5
UNDER 270.5 -114
Projection246.2
Model win62.6%
No-vig edge+12.6%
Model-implied EV+17.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
24.3 below line
Market 270.5
PDR 246.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 246.2 is 24.3 below the 270.5 line.
Model win probability 62.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 62.6% model win, +12.6% no-vig edge, and +17.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions | Passing yards | UNDER 263.5 | 65.7% | +15.7% | +23.3% | WIN · 176 passing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | New York Jets @ Detroit Lions | Passing yards | OVER 258.5 | 60.7% | +10.7% | +13.9% | WIN · 269 passing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 59.5% | +6.7% | +5.3% | WIN · 4 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 2 | Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills | Passing yards | UNDER 270.5 | 62.6% | +12.6% | +17.5% | LOSS · 327 passing yards | Game |